Let’s make Election Day Interesting: Everybody into the Pool

Posted By: Peter DavidPosted On:

I’m starting a pool to predict the results of the Presidential election.

Entering is easy: Predict the split of the Electoral votes between Barack Obama and John McCain. For those who don’t remember off the top of their heads, there are 538 electoral votes total up for grabs, and 270 are required for the presidency.

I’m talking about a final determination as reported by a reliable news source such as the Associated Press, whenever that may be.

Guess how many Obama gets and how many McCain gets. If two people guess the same division, then the person who posted it first has dibs. If you see that someone already beat you to it, then feel free to choose another. One acceptable guess per person. Don’t get cute and start inventing various names and making multiple guesses; trust me, I’ll figure it out and just delete all of them.

What does the winner get? A signed copy of the first issue of “Sir Apropos of Nothing” from IDW. And somewhere right now Elayne Riggs is saying, “Great, just what I need.”

Go to it, kids.

PAD

309 comments on “Let’s make Election Day Interesting: Everybody into the Pool”

  1. Craig J. Ries: Couple this with all the other factors – early voting, possibilities of voter suppression, Bradley effect, the youth vote, and I think I’ll be more surprised if any of the pollsters actually get it right.

    Oh, it’s not that bad. Let me take those one at a time.

    Early voting: This doesn’t hurt polling accuracy. If anything, it improves polling accuracy. Pollsters are asking the same questions of the people who have already voted; in some polls I’ve seen as much as a fourth of their respondents be early voters. These are votes that are 100% locked in, no chance of not showing up or changing their minds.

    Voter Suppression: This doesn’t seem like it will be a huge factor this time. The Republicans are trying, but the Democrats are fighting back early this year. They already defeated major voter suppression tactics in Ohio and Colorado, so things are going well on that front.

    Bradley effect: The evidence is that this happened some in the eighties, but not in the last dozen years or so. Some people have even looked at Obama’s record and found that he’s never experienced the Bradley effect. Sure, a few races came out worse than expected for him in the primaries, but others came out better than expected, even among the white vote. The Bradley effect has been massively hyped by the media so that they have a way of making the race look close, but it doesn’t seem to be around anymore.

    Youth vote: This one is the big question mark. It could be huge and really sway things. On the other hand, the youth vote has been lower than expected in early voting.

    So these factors aren’t as bad as they seem. However, there’s still a chance that pollsters are way off. This will be a learning year for them. Part of the reason the Bradley effect isn’t there anymore is because pollsters learned from what happened with Tom Bradley’s race and Douglas Wilder’s race and they figured out how to account for it. I suspect that the next race will do a better job of adjusting for cell phone only users.

  2. Obama – 341
    McCain – 197

    I strongly suspect that Obama is going to win Montana as well.

  8. PAD,

    Oh, let’s make this interesting. How about also making a guess at how far off (either way) the polls are compared to the actual results. I know, harder to judge. Would have to pick a particular poll. In general, I do think Obama is polling a good 5 points on average more than he will get. Which obviously is still bad for McCain, but we will see.

    My guess (and perhaps wishful thinking, but hey, let’s shoot for it!):

    McCain = 290
    Obama = 248

    Iowa Jim

  9. PAD,

    Oh, let’s make this interesting. How about also making a guess at how far off (either way) the polls are compared to the actual results. I know, harder to judge. Would have to pick a particular poll. In general, I do think Obama is polling a good 5 points on average more than he will get. Which obviously is still bad for McCain, but we will see.

    My guess (and perhaps wishful thinking, but hey, let’s shoot for it!):

    McCain = 290
    Obama = 248

    Iowa Jim

  10. I do not usually make preditions like this or post stuff but the prize is too good to pass.

    Obama 329
    McCain 209

  11. I do not usually make preditions like this or post stuff but the prize is too good to pass.

    Obama 329
    McCain 209

  12. I’m coming in late, so without looking at the other posts I’ll say 293 Obama/ 245 McCain.

    Pleaseohpleaseohpleaseohpleaseohplease don’t let them screw up the count…

  13. I’m coming in late, so without looking at the other posts I’ll say 293 Obama/ 245 McCain.

    Pleaseohpleaseohpleaseohpleaseohplease don’t let them screw up the count…

  14. Drat- all of the good predictions are taken. I’ll go with

    Obama/Biden: 288
    McCain/Palin: 250

    even though a number of unlikely scenarios would have to occur to achieve that result.

  15. Drat- all of the good predictions are taken. I’ll go with

    Obama/Biden: 288
    McCain/Palin: 250

    even though a number of unlikely scenarios would have to occur to achieve that result.

  20. Embarrassingly version 2
    McCain= 268
    Obama= 270
    ——-

    That could be interesting as it would come down to Hawaii delivering the winning votes.

    David

  21. Embarrassingly version 2
    McCain= 268
    Obama= 270
    ——-

    That could be interesting as it would come down to Hawaii delivering the winning votes.

    David

  25. Oh. My. God.

    Two radio DJs from Quebec somehow managed to get a hold of Sarah Palin on Saturday and passed themselves off as French President Nicolas Sarkozy and a member of his staff. And guess what?

    She fell for it.

    Her campaign handlers even confirmed it.

    You can listen to the call at:
    thesuperficialdotcom/2008/11/sarah_palin_probably_shot_whoe.php

    The source for her handlers confirming it is at: politicodotcom/blogs/bensmith/1108/Palin_responds_to_spoof_Cest_la_vie_dot-h-t-m-l?showall

    I love how, once the DJ’s revealed to her that it was a prank, that Palin asked for their radio station’s call signs, as if to indicate that she was okay with the prank, but that she then passed the phone off to one of her people, who were obviously not happy.

    Yeah, let’s let this woman near our nuclear launch codes. As The Superficial said, “We’ll be the only nation in history to perish in an atomic holocaust because The Jerky Boys got through the White House switchboard.”

  26. Oh. My. God.

    Two radio DJs from Quebec somehow managed to get a hold of Sarah Palin on Saturday and passed themselves off as French President Nicolas Sarkozy and a member of his staff. And guess what?

    She fell for it.

    Her campaign handlers even confirmed it.

    You can listen to the call at:
    thesuperficialdotcom/2008/11/sarah_palin_probably_shot_whoe.php

    The source for her handlers confirming it is at: politicodotcom/blogs/bensmith/1108/Palin_responds_to_spoof_Cest_la_vie_dot-h-t-m-l?showall

    I love how, once the DJ’s revealed to her that it was a prank, that Palin asked for their radio station’s call signs, as if to indicate that she was okay with the prank, but that she then passed the phone off to one of her people, who were obviously not happy.

    Yeah, let’s let this woman near our nuclear launch codes. As The Superficial said, “We’ll be the only nation in history to perish in an atomic holocaust because The Jerky Boys got through the White House switchboard.”

  27. It’s been all over the news here. The best part is that bit where “Sarkozy” invited her for a hunting expedition:

    “Sarkozy”: I just love killing those animals. Mmm, mmm, take away life, that is so fun. I’d really love to go, so long as we don’t bring along Vice-President Cheney.

    Palin: No, I’ll be a careful shot, yes.

    God! That is so sureal. I almost bust a gut laughing, and then I realized that this moron can be American president someday. And then I was scared.

  28. It’s been all over the news here. The best part is that bit where “Sarkozy” invited her for a hunting expedition:

    “Sarkozy”: I just love killing those animals. Mmm, mmm, take away life, that is so fun. I’d really love to go, so long as we don’t bring along Vice-President Cheney.

    Palin: No, I’ll be a careful shot, yes.

    God! That is so sureal. I almost bust a gut laughing, and then I realized that this moron can be American president someday. And then I was scared.

  29. “McCain= 269
    Obama= 269

    And all hëll breaks loose when the supreme court gives it to Mccain…”

    Assuming that those are the correct totals, it won’t come down to the Supreme Court, but the newly elected House of Representatives. The House will vote as state delegations, with each state counting as one vote. (Don’t ask me how states with an even number of representatives in Congress split the tie.) Whoever gets the most number of votes is President. The Senate votes for Vice-President, but each Senator gets an individual vote.

    (If this sounds weird, it’s how Thomas Jefferson was elected in 1800, and John Quincy Adams was elected in 1824.)

    So if the Electoral College breaks this way, it’s possible that John McCain could be the next President and Joe Biden the Vice-President.

  30. “McCain= 269
    Obama= 269

    And all hëll breaks loose when the supreme court gives it to Mccain…”

    Assuming that those are the correct totals, it won’t come down to the Supreme Court, but the newly elected House of Representatives. The House will vote as state delegations, with each state counting as one vote. (Don’t ask me how states with an even number of representatives in Congress split the tie.) Whoever gets the most number of votes is President. The Senate votes for Vice-President, but each Senator gets an individual vote.

    (If this sounds weird, it’s how Thomas Jefferson was elected in 1800, and John Quincy Adams was elected in 1824.)

    So if the Electoral College breaks this way, it’s possible that John McCain could be the next President and Joe Biden the Vice-President.

  31. One would think that an intelligent voice would’ve stood up at some point to go “You know, why would we allow a tie in the first place?”

    It’s not just for ties. The election is thrown into the House whenever one candidate doesn’t have a majority of the vote, no matter how many are running. If Perot had siphoned off enough electoral votes that Clinton hadn’t had 270+ in either election, it would have gone to the House, even if Clinton had a clear plurality of electoral votes that mirrored his popular vote. The US has never had a stable 3 party system, so usually one party has a majority. When the system was designed we didn’t have existing political parties (or for that matter an existing functional national government) so partisanship kind of caught the founders by surprise. (Not clear why, since the UK had them… but anyway.) The anticipation was that lots of Presidential elections would go into the House, because they expected multiple candidates, likely because different regions would have favorite sons. The idea was for the runner up to become VP.

    When I suggested we have links for maps, I meant that it would be cool if we could link to maps representing our various pool entries, so we could look at the suggested state breakdown as well as the final total.

  32. One would think that an intelligent voice would’ve stood up at some point to go “You know, why would we allow a tie in the first place?”

    It’s not just for ties. The election is thrown into the House whenever one candidate doesn’t have a majority of the vote, no matter how many are running. If Perot had siphoned off enough electoral votes that Clinton hadn’t had 270+ in either election, it would have gone to the House, even if Clinton had a clear plurality of electoral votes that mirrored his popular vote. The US has never had a stable 3 party system, so usually one party has a majority. When the system was designed we didn’t have existing political parties (or for that matter an existing functional national government) so partisanship kind of caught the founders by surprise. (Not clear why, since the UK had them… but anyway.) The anticipation was that lots of Presidential elections would go into the House, because they expected multiple candidates, likely because different regions would have favorite sons. The idea was for the runner up to become VP.

    When I suggested we have links for maps, I meant that it would be cool if we could link to maps representing our various pool entries, so we could look at the suggested state breakdown as well as the final total.

  33. On the bright side, the math for the House of Representatives makes it very likely that Obama would win a tie.

  34. On the bright side, the math for the House of Representatives makes it very likely that Obama would win a tie.

  44. Well, all the other best scenarios are already taken, so I’ll go with:

    Obama 360
    McCain 178

  45. Obama: 314
    McCain: 224

    Don’t figure I’ve got much of a chance, but you never know! I’d certainly not mind the prize!

  46. Well, I played around on a linked map site – thanks, Bill – and, while I’m still nervous about the election until the results come in, my optimistic-guess total actually doesn’t seem to have been claimed here yet(!), so I might as well:

    Obama/Biden: 379
    McCain/Palin: 159

  47. Well, I played around on a linked map site – thanks, Bill – and, while I’m still nervous about the election until the results come in, my optimistic-guess total actually doesn’t seem to have been claimed here yet(!), so I might as well:

    Obama/Biden: 379
    McCain/Palin: 159

  48. Obama/Biden: 399
    McCain/Palin: 139

    Is it cheating that I just saw Dixville notch go democratic for the first time in 40 years, which led me to make this guess?

    (Note: That’s Obama taking Kerry + IA,NM,CO,VA,NV,OH,MO,IN,NC,GA,FL,MT,ND and NE’s second CD)

  49. Obama/Biden: 399
    McCain/Palin: 139

    Is it cheating that I just saw Dixville notch go democratic for the first time in 40 years, which led me to make this guess?

    (Note: That’s Obama taking Kerry + IA,NM,CO,VA,NV,OH,MO,IN,NC,GA,FL,MT,ND and NE’s second CD)

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