Let’s make Election Day Interesting: Everybody into the Pool

Posted By: Peter DavidPosted On:

I’m starting a pool to predict the results of the Presidential election.

Entering is easy: Predict the split of the Electoral votes between Barack Obama and John McCain. For those who don’t remember off the top of their heads, there are 538 electoral votes total up for grabs, and 270 are required for the presidency.

I’m talking about a final determination as reported by a reliable news source such as the Associated Press, whenever that may be.

Guess how many Obama gets and how many McCain gets. If two people guess the same division, then the person who posted it first has dibs. If you see that someone already beat you to it, then feel free to choose another. One acceptable guess per person. Don’t get cute and start inventing various names and making multiple guesses; trust me, I’ll figure it out and just delete all of them.

What does the winner get? A signed copy of the first issue of “Sir Apropos of Nothing” from IDW. And somewhere right now Elayne Riggs is saying, “Great, just what I need.”

Go to it, kids.

PAD

309 comments on “Let’s make Election Day Interesting: Everybody into the Pool”

  15. My prediction–Obama 362 McCain 176

    (unofficial musings)
    If things break McCains way in the last few days I would still expect it to be no closer than Obama 312 McCain 226

    Give McCain the equivalent of a political Tsunami of unexpected results and you get Obama 277 McCain 261.

    Go to http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/ to see an interactive map and play with the numbers. Pretty addictive, lots of scenarios to play with.

    Oh yeah–if the Night of the Living dead scenario plays out PA comes back into contention and only gun owners brave the undead hordes to go out to the polls in CO and NM…McCain wins with 275. So there’s still that chance.

  16. I see someone already gave all of Karl Rove’s toss-ups to Obama; I’ll credit Ohio to McCain: Obama/McCain 355/183

  25. Obama: 272
    McCain: 266

    Peter, speaking of elections, I recently read the Presidential speech in the last Act or so of Election Day, and he mentions that no President was elected unanimously. But didn’t Washington get 100% of the electoral vote? They didn’t even count the popular vote back then. I think they began counting it with Monroe, and he was said to have run without serious opposition (the “serious” qualifier, I suppose is what could preclude unanimity being used to describe his election).

  26. McCain – 281
    Obama – 257

    I really, really hope I’m wrong. But McCain’s been here in PA a lot, and I’m thinking they found a way to steal my state.

    And, if I win, don’t bother with the book. My eyes will be too filled with tears to read it.

  27. McCain – 281
    Obama – 257

    I really, really hope I’m wrong. But McCain’s been here in PA a lot, and I’m thinking they found a way to steal my state.

    And, if I win, don’t bother with the book. My eyes will be too filled with tears to read it.

  28. McCain: 275
    Obama: 263

    Because if this happens, I’ll NEED the comfort of a nice signed book.

  29. That’s interesting. Nobody’s taken any of the 3 scenarios I think are likely. I think the middle-case scenario is the most probable:

    Obama: 318
    McCain: 220

  30. That’s interesting. Nobody’s taken any of the 3 scenarios I think are likely. I think the middle-case scenario is the most probable:

    Obama: 318
    McCain: 220

  32. Out of curiosity, for the two of you who had a McCain 275 vote, how did you get it? I had to use a really surprising combination of states to get that result. (Surprising even relative to the really surprising scenario of McCain winning at all.)

  33. Out of curiosity, for the two of you who had a McCain 275 vote, how did you get it? I had to use a really surprising combination of states to get that result. (Surprising even relative to the really surprising scenario of McCain winning at all.)

  40. Out of curiosity, for the two of you who had a McCain 275 vote, how did you get it? I had to use a really surprising combination of states to get that result. (Surprising even relative to the really surprising scenario of McCain winning at all.)

    If you flip PA and give all the RCP tossups to McCain you get Obama 257 to Mccain 281. I guess McCain could lose a few of the tossups and still win–but he has to win PA.

    So if they call PA for Obama you can all go to sleep. If not…could be a long exciting night.

  41. Out of curiosity, for the two of you who had a McCain 275 vote, how did you get it? I had to use a really surprising combination of states to get that result. (Surprising even relative to the really surprising scenario of McCain winning at all.)

    If you flip PA and give all the RCP tossups to McCain you get Obama 257 to Mccain 281. I guess McCain could lose a few of the tossups and still win–but he has to win PA.

    So if they call PA for Obama you can all go to sleep. If not…could be a long exciting night.

  44. McCain – 286

    Obama – 251

    I so hope I’m wrong here. I hope those numbers are flipped, but my gut is really bugging me about McCain pulling this out somehow.

  47. If you flip PA and give all the RCP tossups to McCain you get Obama 257 to Mccain 281. I guess McCain could lose a few of the tossups and still win–but he has to win PA.

    Yeah, but the build I came up with for McCain to get 275 involves him taking CO, PA, and VA, but losing NC, which seems weird to me. Another permutation has McCain winning PA, NC, and VA, losing MO and CO, and getting one of either NV or NM. That one makes more sense, but I still would be surprised if he could carry PA but not MO. You and James Carman both had 275, and I was curious which combination of swings you had in mind.

  49. Honestly, I don’t remember what combo I did to get a McCain win…I think I gave him PA, NM, CO and AZ, kept OH for Obama but also gave McCain MO, IN, FL, ND and MT. Then you have 275.

    Remember though, this depends on the whole zombie scenario…

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