Let’s make Election Day Interesting: Everybody into the Pool

Posted By: Peter DavidPosted On:

I’m starting a pool to predict the results of the Presidential election.

Entering is easy: Predict the split of the Electoral votes between Barack Obama and John McCain. For those who don’t remember off the top of their heads, there are 538 electoral votes total up for grabs, and 270 are required for the presidency.

I’m talking about a final determination as reported by a reliable news source such as the Associated Press, whenever that may be.

Guess how many Obama gets and how many McCain gets. If two people guess the same division, then the person who posted it first has dibs. If you see that someone already beat you to it, then feel free to choose another. One acceptable guess per person. Don’t get cute and start inventing various names and making multiple guesses; trust me, I’ll figure it out and just delete all of them.

What does the winner get? A signed copy of the first issue of “Sir Apropos of Nothing” from IDW. And somewhere right now Elayne Riggs is saying, “Great, just what I need.”

Go to it, kids.

PAD

309 comments on “Let’s make Election Day Interesting: Everybody into the Pool”

  7. SORRY! I honestly didn’t mean to post that so many times. I thought it hadn’t posted and double clicked the post button twice.

    My mistake.

    I had a hard time with this decision. Very hard. Had Obama in the lead several times. Nail biter.

  8. SORRY! I honestly didn’t mean to post that so many times. I thought it hadn’t posted and double clicked the post button twice.

    My mistake.

    I had a hard time with this decision. Very hard. Had Obama in the lead several times. Nail biter.

  9. I gave McCain the states I’m confident he’ll win (all of the South), the states he’ll probably win (MO, CO, ND, etc.), and the state the RNC is going to steal for him (PA). Comes to 281.

  10. I gave McCain the states I’m confident he’ll win (all of the South), the states he’ll probably win (MO, CO, ND, etc.), and the state the RNC is going to steal for him (PA). Comes to 281.

  13. LOL! How did you know that Robin autographs a copy for me, at my request, of an issue of every book on which he works? I must have told you at one point. I’m an unabashed Robin Riggs fangirl. 🙂

    I think I have your autograph on at least two of the Sir Apropos hardcovers; I’ll have to get it on the third one now, in exchange for using me as a punchline. 🙂 🙂

    Robin says I should hold off on getting autographs until the trade comes out.

  14. I’m actually surprised at how low the estimates are. I thought I was lowballing Obama when I predicted him getting 353. The way I see it, the crazy high end for Obama is 407, so I thought I’d seem more guesses above 370. Not that a huge landslide is guaranteed, I just thought there be a higher range of guessing.

  15. I’m actually surprised at how low the estimates are. I thought I was lowballing Obama when I predicted him getting 353. The way I see it, the crazy high end for Obama is 407, so I thought I’d seem more guesses above 370. Not that a huge landslide is guaranteed, I just thought there be a higher range of guessing.

  25. B.O: 327
    J.M: 211

    But that’s if my suspicions about McCain being the Penguin are unfounded. Otherwise, be watching for trick umbrellas loaded with mind altering gas hooked up to the voting booths.

  26. B.O: 327
    J.M: 211

    But that’s if my suspicions about McCain being the Penguin are unfounded. Otherwise, be watching for trick umbrellas loaded with mind altering gas hooked up to the voting booths.

  30. I’m actually surprised at how low the estimates are. I thought I was lowballing Obama when I predicted him getting 353. The way I see it, the crazy high end for Obama is 407, so I thought I’d seem more guesses above 370. Not that a huge landslide is guaranteed, I just thought there be a higher range of guessing.

    My 318 vote assumes that CO, NM, NV, IA, VA, and FL flip from 2004, but that Sen. McCain holds OH, NC, and MO. I see Sen. Obama’s realistic cap being Alyson Miers’s final vote of 364 (NC, MO, and OH flip), with the tsunami result being Darryl’s 375 (Indiana voting Democratic. Stranger things have happened, but not often). Higher than that requires absolutely every swing state to go Obama’s way, plus the Mountain West to start doing crazy things. I think his absolute floor is probably 278 (FL and VA surprise people by staying GOP). I missed Houston Mitchell’s vote earlier of 338, which I think is his highest likely result (my scenario + OH). (I almost voted that. I’m glad I decided to go with a McCain quasi-comeback or I’d have felt silly.)

    This is fun. We need to find a way to post links to maps.

  37. I have a theory as to why the Mountain West might actually do crazy things.

    Indiana closes its polls first, then Virginia. If those polls add up their results quickly, which those states usually do, there’s a chance that we’ll get their results as early as 7:30 Eastern Time.

    That’s an hour and a half before North Dakota and Arizona close their polls. It’s two and half hours before Montana closes its polls. If Indiana and Virginia both go for Obama, it’s going to be pretty clear to everyone that McCain has no chance, the race is effectively over.

    In the past we’ve seen that once a winner is declared or becomes obvious, the loser’s supporters are more likely than the winner’s to just not bother going to the polls. So some of those people in MT, ND, and AZ might get depressed and not stop off at the voting booths after work. Since those states don’t have very big leads for McCain, those states could go Obama.

    This scenario only works in the case of a decisive victory, so it has no effect on who wins. But it could possibly turn a large victory for Obama into a huge victory.

  40. I just noticed my first guess has already been chosen. So has almost any other guess I might make. Ah well. I’ll just stick with my first guess.

  41. I just noticed my first guess has already been chosen. So has almost any other guess I might make. Ah well. I’ll just stick with my first guess.

  42. McCain= 269
    Obama= 269

    And all hëll breaks loose when the supreme court gives it to Mccain…

  43. McCain= 269
    Obama= 269

    And all hëll breaks loose when the supreme court gives it to Mccain…

  44. McCain= 269
    Obama= 269

    And all hëll breaks loose when the supreme court gives it to Mccain…

  45. McCain= 269
    Obama= 269

    And all hëll breaks loose when the supreme court gives it to Mccain…

  46. Obama/Biden 286
    McCain/Palin 252

    The lowest Dem numbers I could type without becoming violently ill. I’m still hoping for 375+, but hauntingly believable Diebold scenarios keep playing out in my head.

  47. Obama/Biden 286
    McCain/Palin 252

    The lowest Dem numbers I could type without becoming violently ill. I’m still hoping for 375+, but hauntingly believable Diebold scenarios keep playing out in my head.

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