Let’s make Election Day Interesting: Everybody into the Pool

Posted By: Peter DavidPosted On:

I’m starting a pool to predict the results of the Presidential election.

Entering is easy: Predict the split of the Electoral votes between Barack Obama and John McCain. For those who don’t remember off the top of their heads, there are 538 electoral votes total up for grabs, and 270 are required for the presidency.

I’m talking about a final determination as reported by a reliable news source such as the Associated Press, whenever that may be.

Guess how many Obama gets and how many McCain gets. If two people guess the same division, then the person who posted it first has dibs. If you see that someone already beat you to it, then feel free to choose another. One acceptable guess per person. Don’t get cute and start inventing various names and making multiple guesses; trust me, I’ll figure it out and just delete all of them.

What does the winner get? A signed copy of the first issue of “Sir Apropos of Nothing” from IDW. And somewhere right now Elayne Riggs is saying, “Great, just what I need.”

Go to it, kids.

PAD

309 comments on “Let’s make Election Day Interesting: Everybody into the Pool”

  2. McCain – 286

    Obama – 252

    I really think McCain has found a way to fix this. Whether it’s via Diebold or something else.

  3. McCain – 286

    Obama – 252

    I really think McCain has found a way to fix this. Whether it’s via Diebold or something else.

  11. 298 O’Bam
    240 Mc-Lame-knee.

    See what I did there? He’s old, so he’s got to have a bum knee… and Barack’s handlers are reinventing him as a black irishman! Oh how I crack myself up.

  12. John Conner, the Congress picks the president so if it’s a tie it will most likely go to Obama. I have no idea how to call this race.

  13. Going purely off CNN, and splitting the 90 predicted toss up votes evenly (don’t know if that’s mathematically/geographically possible):

    Obama: 336
    McCain: 202

  14. Going purely off CNN, and splitting the 90 predicted toss up votes evenly (don’t know if that’s mathematically/geographically possible):

    Obama: 336
    McCain: 202

  22. And all hëll breaks loose when the supreme court gives it to Mccain…

    I believe in an Electoral College tie it goes to the House… where the Democrats already hold the edge and look like they’re going to pick up substantial gains.

    One would think that an intelligent voice would’ve stood up at some point to go “You know, why would we allow a tie in the first place?”

  23. And all hëll breaks loose when the supreme court gives it to Mccain…

    I believe in an Electoral College tie it goes to the House… where the Democrats already hold the edge and look like they’re going to pick up substantial gains.

    One would think that an intelligent voice would’ve stood up at some point to go “You know, why would we allow a tie in the first place?”

  24. “Peter, speaking of elections, I recently read the Presidential speech in the last Act or so of Election Day, and he mentions that no President was elected unanimously. But didn’t Washington get 100% of the electoral vote? They didn’t even count the popular vote back then. I think they began counting it with Monroe, and he was said to have run without serious opposition (the “serious” qualifier, I suppose is what could preclude unanimity being used to describe his election).” Posted by Luigi

    He won unanimously (sort of). Each elector submitted two names for the Presidency. The name with the largest number wins. There were 69 electors in the 1788 election. Washington’s name was submitted on each one of them, with Adam’s coming in 2nd. However, only 10 of the original 13 colonies cast votes in 1788. New York (didn’t pass legislation selecting the electors), North Carolina (hadn’t yet ratified the Constitution), and Rhode Island (hadn’t yet ratified the Constitution) did not vote.

    If I remember correctly, the “John Adams” book and mini-series on HBO suggested that Alexander Hamilton orchestrated a unanimous election of Washington in order to show solidarity in the country’s formative years.

    Back then, the second place finisher got the VP job. It has since changed with the passage of the 12th Amendment.

    1788
    Washington – 69
    Adams – 34

    Source: http://everydaysaholiday.wordpress.com/2008/02/18/george-washington/

  27. I don’t think I see this one yet, so please put me down for:

    Obama 382
    McCain whatever-that-leaves.

  28. Drat! I thought I just posted, but don’t see it on the board. Hope this doesn’t become a duplicate post.

    Anyway: I don’t see anyone staking out 382 yet, so please put me down as Obama 382, McCain 156.

  29. Drat! I thought I just posted, but don’t see it on the board. Hope this doesn’t become a duplicate post.

    Anyway: I don’t see anyone staking out 382 yet, so please put me down as Obama 382, McCain 156.

  30. Obama -372
    McCain – 166

    Something tells me that McCain’s negative campaigning, this nasty ad about Obama and his old preacher, and his obvious hesitance about focusing on the issues is gonna bite John in the ášš rather vigourously.

    Miles

  31. Annoyingly I’ve only just seen this post, so most combinations have gone!

    I’ll go for:

    Obama – 295
    McCain – 245

  32. Annoyingly I’ve only just seen this post, so most combinations have gone!

    I’ll go for:

    Obama – 295
    McCain – 245

  35. One thing that makes this hard to call–early voting. mason Dixon has McCain pulling ahead by a point in OH. But if a significant percentage of voters were voting in the last month when Obama was comfortably ahead it might easily overcome any last minute small McCain lead. Of course, we don’t know if those early voters tend to be one side or another.

    It seems to be clear that what ever technique pollsters once had has pretty much vanished. they are all over the place and they can’t all be right. Assuming Obama wins they will pat themselves on the back for getting that right, ignoring that the final numbers were way off. Who ever gets closest will get bragging rights until the next election but is more likely to be lucky than smart–remember when Zogby had a rep for accuracy?

  36. One thing that makes this hard to call–early voting. mason Dixon has McCain pulling ahead by a point in OH. But if a significant percentage of voters were voting in the last month when Obama was comfortably ahead it might easily overcome any last minute small McCain lead. Of course, we don’t know if those early voters tend to be one side or another.

    It seems to be clear that what ever technique pollsters once had has pretty much vanished. they are all over the place and they can’t all be right. Assuming Obama wins they will pat themselves on the back for getting that right, ignoring that the final numbers were way off. Who ever gets closest will get bragging rights until the next election but is more likely to be lucky than smart–remember when Zogby had a rep for accuracy?

  37. Not that I think it actually will go this way, but at least I don’t think anyone else is likely to suggest it:

    McCain 266
    Obama 266

    “Faithless electors” vote one each for Bob Barr, Ralph Nader, and Ron Paul: the Presidency is therefore decided by the new House of Representatives while the Vice Presidency is decided by the new Senate, neither of which has to agree with the other as to which party’s candidates it elects, with the result that we get something we haven’t seen since the early years of the Republic, a President and Vice President from different parties.

    In 1978 California voters elected Democrat Jerry Brown to Governor while also electing Republican Mike Curb to Lieutenant Governor. Since the California Constitution states that whenever the Governor leaves the state the Lieutenant Governor becomes Acting Governor, every time Brown left on a trade mission Curb would start appointing judges, and Brown would have to rush back and un-appoint them. I lived in California back then — endless entertainment, it was.

    (That was even suggested as a way to save the Skylab space station, which was falling out of orbit at the time: Brown would leave the state, and Curb would appoint Skylab to the state judiciary. [Rimshot!])

  38. Not that I think it actually will go this way, but at least I don’t think anyone else is likely to suggest it:

    McCain 266
    Obama 266

    “Faithless electors” vote one each for Bob Barr, Ralph Nader, and Ron Paul: the Presidency is therefore decided by the new House of Representatives while the Vice Presidency is decided by the new Senate, neither of which has to agree with the other as to which party’s candidates it elects, with the result that we get something we haven’t seen since the early years of the Republic, a President and Vice President from different parties.

    In 1978 California voters elected Democrat Jerry Brown to Governor while also electing Republican Mike Curb to Lieutenant Governor. Since the California Constitution states that whenever the Governor leaves the state the Lieutenant Governor becomes Acting Governor, every time Brown left on a trade mission Curb would start appointing judges, and Brown would have to rush back and un-appoint them. I lived in California back then — endless entertainment, it was.

    (That was even suggested as a way to save the Skylab space station, which was falling out of orbit at the time: Brown would leave the state, and Curb would appoint Skylab to the state judiciary. [Rimshot!])

  42. Peter? Glenn? There’s pørņø spam on the Rise of McCainism board
    —
    And on the Shat Slinging one.

    David

  45. It seems to be clear that what ever technique pollsters once had has pretty much vanished.

    Yep. Another fun summary of the daily polls was pointed out over on FiveThirtyEight.com.

    The average of polls that don’t call cellphones? +5.1 for Obama.
    The average of polls that do? +9.4 for Obama.

    That is a HUGE disparity, and one that could have a major affect on the polls versus the real outcome when something like 25% of people in this country no longer have a landline.

    Couple this with all the other factors – early voting, possibilities of voter suppression, Bradley effect, the youth vote, and I think I’ll be more surprised if any of the pollsters actually get it right.

  46. It seems to be clear that what ever technique pollsters once had has pretty much vanished.

    Yep. Another fun summary of the daily polls was pointed out over on FiveThirtyEight.com.

    The average of polls that don’t call cellphones? +5.1 for Obama.
    The average of polls that do? +9.4 for Obama.

    That is a HUGE disparity, and one that could have a major affect on the polls versus the real outcome when something like 25% of people in this country no longer have a landline.

    Couple this with all the other factors – early voting, possibilities of voter suppression, Bradley effect, the youth vote, and I think I’ll be more surprised if any of the pollsters actually get it right.

  47. I’ll go with the George Will prediction–378 for Obama.

    I about fell out of my recliner when Will said that.

  50. Craig J. Ries: Couple this with all the other factors – early voting, possibilities of voter suppression, Bradley effect, the youth vote, and I think I’ll be more surprised if any of the pollsters actually get it right.

    Oh, it’s not that bad. Let me take those one at a time.

    Early voting: This doesn’t hurt polling accuracy. If anything, it improves polling accuracy. Pollsters are asking the same questions of the people who have already voted; in some polls I’ve seen as much as a fourth of their respondents be early voters. These are votes that are 100% locked in, no chance of not showing up or changing their minds.

    Voter Suppression: This doesn’t seem like it will be a huge factor this time. The Republicans are trying, but the Democrats are fighting back early this year. They already defeated major voter suppression tactics in Ohio and Colorado, so things are going well on that front.

    Bradley effect: The evidence is that this happened some in the eighties, but not in the last dozen years or so. Some people have even looked at Obama’s record and found that he’s never experienced the Bradley effect. Sure, a few races came out worse than expected for him in the primaries, but others came out better than expected, even among the white vote. The Bradley effect has been massively hyped by the media so that they have a way of making the race look close, but it doesn’t seem to be around anymore.

    Youth vote: This one is the big question mark. It could be huge and really sway things. On the other hand, the youth vote has been lower than expected in early voting.

    So these factors aren’t as bad as they seem. However, there’s still a chance that pollsters are way off. This will be a learning year for them. Part of the reason the Bradley effect isn’t there anymore is because pollsters learned from what happened with Tom Bradley’s race and Douglas Wilder’s race and they figured out how to account for it. I suspect that the next race will do a better job of adjusting for cell phone only users.

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