Let’s make Election Day Interesting: Everybody into the Pool

Posted By: Peter DavidPosted On:

I’m starting a pool to predict the results of the Presidential election.

Entering is easy: Predict the split of the Electoral votes between Barack Obama and John McCain. For those who don’t remember off the top of their heads, there are 538 electoral votes total up for grabs, and 270 are required for the presidency.

I’m talking about a final determination as reported by a reliable news source such as the Associated Press, whenever that may be.

Guess how many Obama gets and how many McCain gets. If two people guess the same division, then the person who posted it first has dibs. If you see that someone already beat you to it, then feel free to choose another. One acceptable guess per person. Don’t get cute and start inventing various names and making multiple guesses; trust me, I’ll figure it out and just delete all of them.

What does the winner get? A signed copy of the first issue of “Sir Apropos of Nothing” from IDW. And somewhere right now Elayne Riggs is saying, “Great, just what I need.”

Go to it, kids.

PAD

309 comments on “Let’s make Election Day Interesting: Everybody into the Pool”

  1. When you crunch all the numbers with the OpinionJournal ECC map, you get, based on the CBS projections, Obama 367, McCain 171.

    But let’s wait until morning. No returns from Alaska, but if it goes red, those will be the final numbers.

    Miles

  2. That was McCain’s best speech I’ve heard, I think.

    If only he ran his entire campaign like that.

  4. Well, if Obama wins NE-2, and loses MO and MT, then he gets 365, which no one has guessed yet. Allyson would be closest to that total right now. I wonder if someone could put in a guess right now for that amount and win.

  5. Well, if Obama wins NE-2, and loses MO and MT, then he gets 365, which no one has guessed yet. Allyson would be closest to that total right now. I wonder if someone could put in a guess right now for that amount and win.

  6. That was McCain’s best speech I’ve heard, I think.

    If only he ran his entire campaign like that.

    As I recall, Kerry’s concession speech was his best one as well. And I thought Obama’s victory speech was the best he’s been since that first speech that launched him, those few years ago. Maybe someday we’ll get candidates who put as much work into their stump speeches as they do into their final ones.

    (Maybe when the votes are counted and the pressure is off and the fear of saying something that will screw it up subsides, they begin to relax and be themselves. I can understand that.)

  7. At this point it’s looking like Jason won the pool–both he and Mike had Obama’s tally right, and Mike was actually first with it, but Jason was much closer on McCain–but I’ll wait to see the final tallies.

    PAD

  8. At this point it’s looking like Jason won the pool–both he and Mike had Obama’s tally right, and Mike was actually first with it, but Jason was much closer on McCain–but I’ll wait to see the final tallies.

    PAD

  11. Well, it depends on who you go with. MSNBC only has NC left to call, with it sitting at 349-173.

    CNN hasn’t called MO, NC, or IN. If they gave MO and IN to Obama, and NC to McCain, then that would hit my 360-178 guess.

    But, with nobody being wrong so far on their calling of states, MSNBC is probably right. 🙂

  12. it’s close in NC but I think Obama pulled it off.

    One sour note–looks like California voters may have voted to end the right of gays to marry. While black voters showing up at the polls was a good thing for Obama it was a bad thing for gay rights; it’s the one big demographic that is both pro-democratic Party and anti-gay.

  13. it’s close in NC but I think Obama pulled it off.

    One sour note–looks like California voters may have voted to end the right of gays to marry. While black voters showing up at the polls was a good thing for Obama it was a bad thing for gay rights; it’s the one big demographic that is both pro-democratic Party and anti-gay.

  14. That was McCain’s best speech I’ve heard, I think.

    Absolutely. As much as I detest a lot of the things he and his campaign did for the last 4-6 weeks of the campaign, that was a very graceful, classy exit.

    And agreed, Bill, on California’s Prop 8. I hope the last few percent of the state electorate change the tide, but it looks like it’s going to pass.

    I have a few disappointments — Prop 8, the fact that Michelle Bachmann (R-abid) returned to office, etc. — but on the whole I had an overwhelming sense of relief last night. A good night.

    (And what is up with Alaska? Reelecting Stevens even after his conviction? Huh?)

    TWL

  15. That was McCain’s best speech I’ve heard, I think.

    Absolutely. As much as I detest a lot of the things he and his campaign did for the last 4-6 weeks of the campaign, that was a very graceful, classy exit.

    And agreed, Bill, on California’s Prop 8. I hope the last few percent of the state electorate change the tide, but it looks like it’s going to pass.

    I have a few disappointments — Prop 8, the fact that Michelle Bachmann (R-abid) returned to office, etc. — but on the whole I had an overwhelming sense of relief last night. A good night.

    (And what is up with Alaska? Reelecting Stevens even after his conviction? Huh?)

    TWL

  16. And what is up with Alaska? Reelecting Stevens even after his conviction? Huh?

    that’s like electing a dead guy–you have to assume that the governor is going to select someone good. So Palin will get to make her first act of her eventual 2012 run pretty early.

  17. Under Alaska state law, the ejection of a Senator leads to a special election for his replacement. Right now there is a lot of speculation that Palin will run for Stevens’ seat if that happens, which she would almost certainly win. They’re thinking that would give her 4 years of Senate experience before her 2012 run for the Presidency.

  18. Under Alaska state law, the ejection of a Senator leads to a special election for his replacement. Right now there is a lot of speculation that Palin will run for Stevens’ seat if that happens, which she would almost certainly win. They’re thinking that would give her 4 years of Senate experience before her 2012 run for the Presidency.

  19. Why would she think that being a junior senator in the minority party is better experience than being governor of a state for another 4 years? This year to the contrary, it’s lately been the former governors that have been elected president.

  20. Why would she think that being a junior senator in the minority party is better experience than being governor of a state for another 4 years?

    If it were a state on the continental US, this might be true. But Alaska isn’t exactly on the forefront of the national mind when it comes to governors. If she were in the Senate, she’d have a better chance of being seen and heard.

    Plus, a move from governor to senate is generally considered a step up politically, even as senators have had a rough time making the jump to the presidency in recent elections.

  21. Why would she think that being a junior senator in the minority party is better experience than being governor of a state for another 4 years?

    If it were a state on the continental US, this might be true. But Alaska isn’t exactly on the forefront of the national mind when it comes to governors. If she were in the Senate, she’d have a better chance of being seen and heard.

    Plus, a move from governor to senate is generally considered a step up politically, even as senators have had a rough time making the jump to the presidency in recent elections.

  22. I gotta say the speeches were amazing …with obama now it almost goes without saying, but McCain did much better than i expected as far as his eloquence (sp?).

    One of the things I kept thinking throughout his speech is that McCain isn’t really speaking to his supporters ~ he’s speaking to the crazy people that didn’t want a muslim terrorist to become president which i thought was hugely sad. He deserves better company even though i thought he ran a dirty campaign he’s still done alot for this country.

  23. I gotta say the speeches were amazing …with obama now it almost goes without saying, but McCain did much better than i expected as far as his eloquence (sp?).

    One of the things I kept thinking throughout his speech is that McCain isn’t really speaking to his supporters ~ he’s speaking to the crazy people that didn’t want a muslim terrorist to become president which i thought was hugely sad. He deserves better company even though i thought he ran a dirty campaign he’s still done alot for this country.

  24. Plus, a move from governor to senate is generally considered a step up politically, even as senators have had a rough time making the jump to the presidency in recent elections.

    Of the 9 governors who had themselves appointed senator only 1 was able to win reelection- Albert B. “Happy” Chandler. History would suggest that it’s a very very bad move.

  27. Why would she think that being a junior senator in the minority party is better experience than being governor of a state for another 4 years? This year to the contrary, it’s lately been the former governors that have been elected president.

    If she wins, all she’ll have to do is vote and study for 1012. Better now than 4 or 6 years from now.

  28. Why would she think that being a junior senator in the minority party is better experience than being governor of a state for another 4 years? This year to the contrary, it’s lately been the former governors that have been elected president.

    If she wins, all she’ll have to do is vote and study for 1012. Better now than 4 or 6 years from now.

  29. I think Alyson is going to win this one…

    Yep, it’s Alyson.

    With 100% precincts reporting in in the 3 states that were still counting votes, Obama won NC (by 12,337) and McCain won MO & GA (by 5,868 & 207,530 respectfully). That makes the total Obama 364, McCain 174.

    Congrats to Alyson!

  30. Of the 9 governors who had themselves appointed senator only 1 was able to win reelection- Albert B. “Happy” Chandler. History would suggest that it’s a very very bad move.

    I believe if Stevens is expelled expelled from the Senate, then Alaska requires a special election, not an appointment from the governor.

    I’m just not sure if this special election is temporary (until the next general election in 2010) or permanent.

  31. Of the 9 governors who had themselves appointed senator only 1 was able to win reelection- Albert B. “Happy” Chandler. History would suggest that it’s a very very bad move.

    I believe if Stevens is expelled expelled from the Senate, then Alaska requires a special election, not an appointment from the governor.

    I’m just not sure if this special election is temporary (until the next general election in 2010) or permanent.

  32. I think it may be both–she appoints someone and then a special election is held within 90 days (with the appointee probably in good shape to win, if they haven’t been caught with a congressional intern during their 90 day apprenticeship.

  33. So how does your stat of 1 in 9 getting re-election work into Alaska’s situation, Bill?

    Is it that all 9 had 90 day temporary appointments, or did they serve a variety of lengths of terms before re-election?

  34. So how does your stat of 1 in 9 getting re-election work into Alaska’s situation, Bill?

    Is it that all 9 had 90 day temporary appointments, or did they serve a variety of lengths of terms before re-election?

  35. And now the AP is reporting that Prop 8 passed.

    I think it’s pretty much a given that legal challenges will occur to try and nullify everything they can with the marriages that did occur.

  36. Ken Rudin at the Wash post wrote about this:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/campaigns/junkie/archive/junkie080699.htm

    Looking just at Governors who were appointed as senators:

    Montana, 1933 – Sen. Thomas Walsh (D) died. Gov. John Erickson (D) appointed self, lost 1934 primary.

    Kentucky, 1939 – Sen. Marvel Logan (D) died. Gov. Happy Chandler (D) appointed self, won elections in 1940 and 1942.

    Nevada, 1945 – Sen. James Scrugham (D) died. Gov. Edward Carville (D) appointed self, lost 1946 primary.

    Idaho, 1945 – Sen. John Thomas (R) died. Gov. Charles Gossett (D) appointed self, lost 1946 primary.

    Wyoming, 1960 – Sen.-elect Keith Thomson (R) died. Gov. John J. Hickey (D) appointed self, lost 1962 election.

    New Mexico, 1962 – Sen. Dennis Chavez (D) died. Gov. Edwin Mechem (R) appointed self, lost 1964 election.

    Oklahoma, 1963 – Sen. Robert Kerr (D) died. Gov. J. Howard Edmondson (D) appointed self, lost 1964 primary.

    South Carolina, 1965 – Sen. Olin Johnston (D) died. Gov. Donald Russell (D) appointed self, lost 1966 primary.

    Minnesota, 1977 – Sen. Walter Mondale (D) elected vice president. Gov. Wendell Anderson (D) appointed self, lost 1978 election.

    It seems to me that Palin can continue to be governor and travel the world and do whatever it takes to beef up her inexperience in various areas while still doing the stuff that makes governors more appealing to voters in presidential politics. If Obama is in trouble in 2012 it will probably be the economy that is causing him heartache and Governors have the advantage of working on much more local and thus manageable problems than a president does (I’ve always maintained that the president gets way more blame or credit than they deserve on matter economic).

    Of course, the real winner for the republicans will be whoever figures out how to replicate Obama’s fund raising acumen.

  37. Ken Rudin at the Wash post wrote about this:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/campaigns/junkie/archive/junkie080699.htm

    Looking just at Governors who were appointed as senators:

    Montana, 1933 – Sen. Thomas Walsh (D) died. Gov. John Erickson (D) appointed self, lost 1934 primary.

    Kentucky, 1939 – Sen. Marvel Logan (D) died. Gov. Happy Chandler (D) appointed self, won elections in 1940 and 1942.

    Nevada, 1945 – Sen. James Scrugham (D) died. Gov. Edward Carville (D) appointed self, lost 1946 primary.

    Idaho, 1945 – Sen. John Thomas (R) died. Gov. Charles Gossett (D) appointed self, lost 1946 primary.

    Wyoming, 1960 – Sen.-elect Keith Thomson (R) died. Gov. John J. Hickey (D) appointed self, lost 1962 election.

    New Mexico, 1962 – Sen. Dennis Chavez (D) died. Gov. Edwin Mechem (R) appointed self, lost 1964 election.

    Oklahoma, 1963 – Sen. Robert Kerr (D) died. Gov. J. Howard Edmondson (D) appointed self, lost 1964 primary.

    South Carolina, 1965 – Sen. Olin Johnston (D) died. Gov. Donald Russell (D) appointed self, lost 1966 primary.

    Minnesota, 1977 – Sen. Walter Mondale (D) elected vice president. Gov. Wendell Anderson (D) appointed self, lost 1978 election.

    It seems to me that Palin can continue to be governor and travel the world and do whatever it takes to beef up her inexperience in various areas while still doing the stuff that makes governors more appealing to voters in presidential politics. If Obama is in trouble in 2012 it will probably be the economy that is causing him heartache and Governors have the advantage of working on much more local and thus manageable problems than a president does (I’ve always maintained that the president gets way more blame or credit than they deserve on matter economic).

    Of course, the real winner for the republicans will be whoever figures out how to replicate Obama’s fund raising acumen.

  38. > all she’ll have to do is vote and study for 1012

    This is almost as funny as David Kahane at NRO accidentally talking about Hillary’s prospects for 2112.

    – Z

  39. Oh my God. I got the right numbers? That’s so wild.

    Congratulations to Obama on snatching North Carolina and Indiana! The 50-state strategy is on its way!

  40. Congratulations, Alyson. You could go work for one of the professional pollsters, though your record of accuracy may be a problem 🙂

    (the list of those who did best and worst in polling is out now. Rasmussen and Pew did the best, calling it exactly right, while Gallup, zogby, CBS/Times and Newsweek got some ‘splaining to do. They probably won’t though.)

  43. I don’t think it matters with regards to the guesses here, but there’s still the possibility that Obama won Omaha, which means he would get one of Nebraska’s EV’s as well. That would make it 365.

  44. I don’t think it matters with regards to the guesses here, but there’s still the possibility that Obama won Omaha, which means he would get one of Nebraska’s EV’s as well. That would make it 365.

  45. Not one person guessed 365, so it’s still Alyson.

    Hmmmmmmm…. wait a sec…. I’d like to change my guess to 365 for Obama and 173 for McCain. 😉

  46. Well, Aylson picked 364 and I picked 367 and the final total appears to be 365, what with Nebraska tossing an extra EV to Obama.

    So you could just cut the comic in half and send each of us a part. Or a copy to each of us?

    Yes, I’m sucking up for a signed copy of a comic book. I’m without shame.

  47. Well, Aylson picked 364 and I picked 367 and the final total appears to be 365, what with Nebraska tossing an extra EV to Obama.

    So you could just cut the comic in half and send each of us a part. Or a copy to each of us?

    Yes, I’m sucking up for a signed copy of a comic book. I’m without shame.

  48. Have they announced the results from Nebraska and Missouri by now?

    (I can’t believe it’s taken days to get a final tally. Still, thank goodness we got above 270 without any tomfoolery in Florida or Ohio.)

  49. Have they announced the results from Nebraska and Missouri by now?

    (I can’t believe it’s taken days to get a final tally. Still, thank goodness we got above 270 without any tomfoolery in Florida or Ohio.)

  50. For those who enjoy such things, the website
    fivethirtyeight.com
    has done a great job of tabulating polls, statistics, scenarios, simulations, and reporting on results.

    Peter, the next time you do this, you should include the Senate number as a tie-breaker.

    And one more thing to like about the President-Elect:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/26/barackobama-uselections2008

    “Grandpa bought me all the DC Comic books, and I was the only one who had them, so Barry [Barack Obama] and Yanto would borrow the books and copy pictures of Batman and Spider-Man out and ask me to judge which was better. Barry was always better than Yanto. Even Yanto always agreed with that. Barry had a great eye.”

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