Since my previous blog entry was an entirely partisan guess about how things are going to turn out…and is already approaching a potentially unwieldy one hundred comments…I invite folks who actually want to discuss this election night to do so here.
Since my previous blog entry was an entirely partisan guess about how things are going to turn out…and is already approaching a potentially unwieldy one hundred comments…I invite folks who actually want to discuss this election night to do so here.
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Sadly, I think Bush will win. Kerry doing okay, but not specatularly and Bush looks set to take Florida by several hundred thousand. But it’s too early to say more than that, I guess.
When even Fox News is dithering, you know it could go either way.
John
I think I’m gonna mostly avoid the coverage until I wake up tomorrow, and cross my fingers.
Well, I’m glued to the BBC web site, since they’re projecting more aggressively.
But the game is still too close to call. 211 Bush vs. 188 Kerry, leaves 138 uncalled for. That’s 14 states to go, of which two (Florida and Ohio) have 47 votes between ’em.
What am I predicting? That I’m staying up all night. That’s what I’m predicting!
Crap…. there’s an election???
(hehheh…. Just got home from work. And am Canadian. )
Given the disaster of the early exit polling it would be crazy to predict anything right now…Ohio may be this years Florida.
Some of the more depressed Democrats are now floating the idea that Karl Rove floated the exit polls to get Democrats to stay home and/or call off their lawyers, thinking they had victory cinched. He couldn’t be that smart and they couldn’t be that dumb.
The map looks almost exactly like the last elections…there will be lots of second guessing no matter who wins.
I predicted a kerry victory and I’ll stick to it, though it looks like he may well lose the popular vote…there would be a certain irony in that. In all honesty it looks like Bush has a slight edge at this point but I still don’t understand the suicidal ravings over at the hardcore democrat sites.
Hey, doesn’t maine have another electoral vote? Who gets it?
I caught a little of the coverage, but right now it’s non-news: The networks don’t know who won, but they have to cover it from every angle they can. This means lots of speculation and little actual news. At least in the morning there’ll be more of a result.
My bet: Lots of challenges and debates, eventually leading to the announcement that the person who initially won, will remain the winner.
Hey, doesn’t maine have another electoral vote? Who gets it?
It’s based on who wins the congressional districts, just like NE.
So, more than likely, in the end, that 4th Electoral vote will go to Kerry as well.
It’s a shame to see all the same-sex marraige amendments passing. Also a shame to see our Amendment 36 fail here in Colorado.
It’s down to Ohio. If Kerry doesn’t win it, he’s toast. If Bush loses it, he still has a chance, but we’re back to a razor thin margin.
Yep, it’s sure looking more and more like Ohio is gonna be this year’s Florida.
Michigan’s still up for grabs as well, although some exit polls have been giving Kerry a slight edge.
KET
I’m still following the BBC site.
If Bush gets Ohio and New Hampshire, we are indeed toast.
If all he gets is Ohio…NH seems to go for Kerry..and everything else follows the 2000 pattern…
Hello President Kerry!
Fox News says Bush has Ohio.
My math gets dámņëd optimistic after midnight.
Bush gets Ohio + Nevada + Alaska, he gets more than enough to win.
Pfui.
I think Kerry will get Nevada, but Bush will get NM and Alaska. Add that to Ohio, as Fox just called it for him, and Bush has won.
Bush elected president. That would be a first.
PAD
It looks like Bush is winning (guess we should count all the votes, huh?).
But I’ve notice several questions that are being asked about why Kerry lost. I mean on the surface there were several factors in his favor. Would like to hear from some Kerry supporters… what do you think?
That is the best that you can come up with???
Pitiful!
That was directed at PAD.
Jim,
I’m what you’d call a Kerry supporter, having voted for him. So why do I think Kerry lost? Because I wasn’t voting for Kerry so much as against Bush. I wasn’t all that thrilled with Kerry, I just wanted someone other than Bush. If I were undecided, neither of them would’ve impressed me, and I would’ve gone with the devil I knew vs. the one that I didn’t. Maybe that’s why.
Well, as a Kerry supporter, I think one thing that hurt him was his inability to take a firm stance on a lot of the issues. During the debates, whenever Kerry was asked a question with any potential ramifications on religion (stem cell research, Roe v. Wade, etc.) he tried too hard not to alienate the more conservative voters. I’d have liked to see him accept that he’s not going to get the vote of the religious right, and just go for it. I would have liked to think that the American people were more liberal than their leadership (although the same-sex marriage ban results would seem to prove me wrong) and were waiting to see whether Kerry could muster the courage of his convictions. I think there were those that wanted Kerry to give them an excuse to vote Democrat, but he was too concerned about being “too liberal” that he couldn’t pull the trigger. He should have been accepting Bush’s “most liberal senator” label and wearing it proudly!
Of course, there’s always the likelihood that I don’t know what I’m talking about.
To Saul:
I felt exactly the same way you did, until I watched Going Upriver, the Long War of John Kerry. Turned me from anti-Bush to pro-Kerry. I don’t expect Kerry will be the Democratic nominee in 2008, and now I feel that we’re really missing out by not getting to see what he could do.
Well, it is done. The people have spoken. As much as some of you fear Bush, I suspect in 4 years many of your fears will be proven wrong. (One fear that there would be an “October surprise” by Bush never happened. Instead, again like in 2000, there was an “October Surprise” to attack Bush.)
Jim in Iowa
“Bush elected president. That would be a first.”
And quite possibly with more votes than any candidate in history. Go figure.
Ok, you can start your spin now Peter and other Kerry supporters. Tell us about how you’ve been wronged, etc., etc.
Or, you can just start fresh and give George a chance to try and win you over his next 4 years.
Optimistic or Pessimistic? What’s it going to be?
Novafan
Sorry, Jim. It is by no means done.
Ain’t no f***ing way Kerry will concede Ohio without a fight. Not with absentee ballots yet to be counted.
Fox News does not dictate reality. Not yet.
Not yet.
TWL
Scott,
It’s interesting that you meationed the social issues (stem cell research, Roe v. Wade, etc). A couple of the reports I’ve listen to tonight have suggested that these issues swayed the vote more than Kerry might have thought.
Saul, you say, “I wasn’t all that thrilled with Kerry”. Let me push you just a little and ask what is you favorite trait of Kerry?
To quote C J Cregg:
“Oh Me-o, Oh My-o, Oh Cleveland, Ohio…”
TWL, Yeah I’ve been listening. When they started talking about the Ohio vote, I pulled out my spread sheet and Bush has maintained over 100,000 during these last counts. Did you hear the Ohio SOS? I liked what he said. One point which was no matter how long it took they would provide an correct count. When these elections are so close we should all be patient and let the process work. This is the best way to keep it out of court.
The best kerry can do is tie @ this moment (12:50 cst) in which case it goes to the house that has the republican majority. but i doubt it’ll get to that since in New Mexico bush leads by 30,000 votes & in Iowa by 11,500.
**Ain’t no f***ing way Kerry will concede Ohio without a fight. Not with absentee ballots yet to be counted.**
Tim,
i doubt Ohio has enough absentee ballots to make up 102,000 votes that kerry lost to bush.
Joe
Jim,
Honestly? My favorite trait of Kerry is that he’s not Bush. What can I say? I watched the debates (or at least as much as my infant and toddler would allow) and just wasn’t all that impressed. Nothing he said really blew me away and made me say “Now there’s a guy I *want* to vote for.”
I look at the country and how it’s doing (in my eyes) and how I’m personally being affected. If I like what I’m seeing, I vote for the incumbent. If I don’t, I vote for the challenger. Right now, I don’t like the way the country’s going, and I’m nervous about my future job prospects, so I want to change things.
Doesn’t really matter, anyway, ’cause I’m in Colorado and we’re not decided by so few votes that mine *really* matters, at least not since I’ve been here 🙁 But I’ll keep supporting the system!
Scott, I didn’t see that show/movie/whatever it is. See above (re: infant and toddler); my time just doesn’t allow for that much watching of stuff. I keep up on a couple of reality shows w/my wife and Smallville if I’m lucky.
Gotta go to bed now.
“But I’ve notice several questions that are being asked about why Kerry lost. I mean on the surface there were several factors in his favor. Would like to hear from some Kerry supporters… what do you think?”
Well, first and foremost, there’s a lot of stupid people out there. Three quarters of Bush’s supporters STILL think Saddam was in league with bin Laden and had WMDs. Stupid people’s votes count.
Second, as is indicated by nearly a dozen states going out of their way to formalize bias insofar as gays are concerned (displaying the same frame of mind that once said, “Oh my God, blacks can’t marry whites” or “Jews can’t marry Catholics”) there’s a ton of people out there who share Bush’s narrow-minded bigotry and intolerance, and thus embrace him. They believe, like Bush, that government shouldn’t intrude into people’s lives except, of course, if someone’s sexual orientation or a woman’s uterus is involved.
Third, Bush and Cheney have been working on keeping Americans in fear and at war for three years, betting on the historical track record that Americans don’t like to switch leadership if they’re afraid or at war.
Fourth, I said months ago that if Kerry didn’t manage to present a credible alternative in terms of Iraq, people would simply stick with Bush.
Fifth, a rabid Bush supporter built the computerized, non-checkable voting machines. I suspect that we’re going to be overwhelmed with stories in the next weeks of malfunctions and screw-ups at polling places.
Sixth, see the first.
PAD
“Well, it is done. The people have spoken. As much as some of you fear Bush, I suspect in 4 years many of your fears will be proven wrong.”
Excellent. So you’re saying he and Cheney will be impeached and out of office before then?
“(One fear that there would be an “October surprise” by Bush never happened. Instead, again like in 2000, there was an “October Surprise” to attack Bush.)”
You can’t be serious. The tape from bin Laden was right in Bush’s wheelhouse. It reminded people that bin Laden was out there and gave them another last minute, healthy jolt of fear, which is what the Bush campaign feeds off of, like vampires. The timing was impeccable and only helped Bush.
PAD
Oh, here in south dakota, John Thune leads 1 of the biggest pain in the ášš to GWB, Senate Minority leader Tom Daschle by 7,000 votes. looks like the D’s are going to have to nominate a new leader.
This will only be the 2nd time in US history the current party senate leader looses his seat.
Joe
“Ok, you can start your spin now Peter and other Kerry supporters. Tell us about how you’ve been wronged, etc., etc. Or, you can just start fresh and give George a chance to try and win you over his next 4 years. Optimistic or Pessimistic? What’s it going to be?”
Spin what? Aside from the fact that nothing’s over or decided, I’ve been predicting this for ages.
I assure you I will give Bush as much of a chance as the GOP gave Clinton.
PAD
as someone who voted for Kerry because i was sick of this administrations lack of finishing what they start, I can only say that if Bush squeezed out in this, that we continue to dog him and his Supporters as Iraq, Afghanistan, and the middle east will continue to spiral out of control. Im very, very dissapointed in my fellow citizens, especially after seeing how bigoted people are.
I mean, come on, how much longer than the Bush administration keep this B.S. up for? They were starting to run dry before the Election started, and Im waiting for the next thing that tarnishes our countries image.
“I mean, come on, how much longer than the Bush administration keep this B.S. up for? They were starting to run dry before the Election started, and Im waiting for the next thing that tarnishes our countries image.”
No kidding. The only global saving grace we’ve had as a country thus far is that the current fiasco is courtesy of a president who lost the popular vote and was inserted through dubious means that has made a shambles of how we’re seen globally. An actual, genuine election of him would be seen as an endorsement despite all the crap he’s pulled, and that’s going to make things go from bad to worse…something the Bushies cannot, will not grasp.
The way I see it, there’s only one remote upside: If Bush is re-elected, things are just going to get SO much worse (bring on the scandals and investigations that dog second terms, kids)that even his most devoted, blind followers will finally wise up. Which means that what’s left of the country in 2008 can put a true Democratic slate into the White House and Congress and reverse the continuing horror show that is Bush, something that wouldn’t have been possible with a Kerry win but a Republic House and Senate in place.
PAD
“Bush elected president. That would be a first.
PAD”
Oh Jesus tap danceing Christ PAD don’t say that he might use that logic to run for a third term!
Hmmm… should Bush win, do you think there will be a good chance that Hilary Clinton will run for the Dems’ presidential nomination?
“The first day for the 2008 presidential campaign starts today.”
Oh, and a quick question from a foreigner who is puzzled by the US election process: people are voting for the House of Representatives and the Senate? How is that panning out?
Widya Santoso
“The way I see it, there’s only one remote upside: If Bush is re-elected, things are just going to get SO much worse (bring on the scandals and investigations that dog second terms, kids)that even his most devoted, blind followers will finally wise up.”
Someone get Kenneth Starr of the phone!
I think what surprises me the most through this election is the belief that America is safer, or will be in safer hands with Bush at the helm. Leaving your own feelings on Iraq and Afghanistan aside for a moment, look at it from the perspective of the rest of the world. Having lost almost all our credibility throughout Europe and Asia, having lost many moderates of the MidEast to a more radical point of view, do you honestly feel that being this ethnocentric is healthy? That terrorism is combated by killing more terrorists? While I’m sure that members of Al Qaeda and other groups have now been killed, how many more have we pushed to the other side? Rather than trying to find the root cause of a problem, President Bush continues to try and cut off the head, and I just can’t see how that is sound foreign policy. And you might argue that some Iraqi’s are happy we’re there, which im sure they are…but you’re dead wrong if you think that there are just as many all over that region that are starting to agree with Osama….man, no wonder he made a tape now, Bush bolsters his ranks for every dumb decision he makes.
Hmmmmmm, liberals as the “new Confederates”? Never surrender, “the South (Hamptons) will rise again!”. Sheesh, if I was so full of self-loathing to be an American I would move to Canada…
And oh yes, BA-WAHAHAHAHA!!! So, what’s the theme for the next four years of “rebels without a clue?” “Bush is Satan!” Oh, crap, no, religious stuff. I know, “Bush is Stalin!” Oh wait, one of the people we liked, “Uncle Joe”. Hmmmmm, “Bush is Osama!”, yes! I think I found your new theme…
Thanks for providing a shining example of the mentality we can expect from the American leadership over the next four years.
I wanted to write something long and looming, but in the end, I think we can all agree (Republican and Democrat alike) that with George W. Bush unchecked in power, we, the people, are f*cked.
I don’t know how the cards will fall; it still looks too close to call, and I don’t think Kerry will duck the challenges like Gore did.
However, if the Monkey gets to stay in office, there is one thing to look forward to; the bloodletting in the Democratic Party. They might have done more with a stronger candidate like Howard Dean; he wouldn’t have ducked anything. But the party regulars were upset that he did a hoarse victory whoop on television.
Those party regulars don’t represent anyone I know. And now that the Democratic base is energized, said base can apply that energy to beating the crap out of the Democratic leadership that betrayed them.
As of right now (249 to 269 votes for Bush, depending on netowork), Kerry should just let it go. Don’t concede, but don’t get impatient. Have faith that democracy will come fully through. And if it is fated that he should lose (it’s still not a clear thing), he then should concede with respect. There’s no shame in patience; in the days before radio, no one knew who the President would be for days, even weeks. But thanks to the “me”dia, we want it tonight. Well, people will just have to accept that, even though it looks like Bush is going to win, we won’t know that he did with certainty for at least a day or two.
Patience is the key, for Kerry, for Bush, for the rest of America. Impatience was the number one cause of the 2000 election fiasco.
Re: How’s the Senate and House elections going.
The Republicans are projected to increase their Senate majority to 55 out of 100, and increase their existing House majority by about six seats (five of which seem to be coming from Texas. Not sure if this is accountable to that redistricting hoohah that had the Demos in the Texas Legislature fleeing the state). Scary bit? Supreme Court nominees only have to be confirmed by majority vote of the Senate. Which, barring the possible ability to filibuster such, means Bush would have close to carte blanche in his choice of nominees.
Btw, a bit more details on the Congressional election procedure. 1/3rd of the Senate is elected every two years (staggered six year terms). The entire House is up for election every two years, but because of increased sophistication in redrawing House districts, very few House seats are actually competative in any one election.
And, we won’t know for sure who won until November 13th. Ohio law requires 11 days to count the absentee et al ballots. And Ohio’s what decides the outcome.
Thanks Tom. It looks like the Repubs will have a majority in both houses.
BTW, not to question your description of the voting for Supreme Court judges, but I thought there had to be a majority of 60, not just a straight majority. I read this in regards to the current judge who is ill, and the possibility that in the case of a deadlocked election, the Supreme Court would have to decide the election. Because this judge (whose name I can’t recall) holds the deciding vote, there is a good possibility that the Court would also be deadlocked. The President would try to push through his nominee but unless he has a majority of 60 he wouldn’t be able to; and as sure as eggs the Dems wouldn’t accept any nominee he puts forward. I of course defer to your explanation- you are more familiar than I am.
BTW, the joke going around Australia is that these elections are more important than the recent Federal elections we have had here last month. Why? Becuase it’ll determine who runs Australia for the next four years.
(Ahh, I guess you have to live here to get it.)
Widya Santoso
What I don’t understand….how can you say Bush is abopve the baord when there is an overwhelming amount of evidence to show he isn’t honest or looking out for the country’s best intrest. how long can people just ignore it ?
How incredibly depressing, John Howard back as PM down here in Oz, Bush again up there in Texas, sorry, America, lets keep are fingers crossed for born-again conservative Tony Blair and maybe I can justifiably commit a guilt free suicide in despair at nations gripped by faer of things that are a lot less inevitable than all the miriad of dangers that have always surrounded our world, galaxy, universe, none of which is very clever of me to say, but hey when stagnation gives birth to regression at least comics will seem like a more adult, realistic alternative to the farce we call western civilisation, thus comics sales will boom and ye verily, the meek shall inherit thee eath.
Have I been smoking something, and if so where can I get some of what I’m smoking?
I always knew that bush would end up rotting my brain! :)))