Over the last year or two I’ve received quite a few inquiries from fans asking why they can’t find “Out of the Darkness,” the third book in the Centauri Prime trilogy “Legions of Fire.” Okay, you CAN find it, but it will run you $35 all the way up to $70.
Welcome to what Max Allan Collins refers to in publishing as the net sales death spiral. It goes as follows:
Let’s say the guys who order the books for Borders and B&N order–just tossing out a number–50,000 copies of the first book in a series. Average sell-through on a book is 50-60%. Let’s be generous and say that book then actually sells 30,000 copies. The next book in the series comes out, they order 30,000 copies. Which means that the book will sell maybe 20,000 copies. So the next book, they’ll order 20,000 copies.
In the case of the three B5 books I wrote, the bookbuyers ordered X for the first one, X-50% for the second, and X-50% of that for the third. Meantime the series only became more popular, not less. In the long term, this isn’t necessarily a problem because the publisher can go back to press as the demand continues to increase. But the licensing agreement ran out, so they were unable to go back to press on the third because they no longer have the rights to the property.
Which is why you can’t find the third book.
PAD
• 
This story makes me glad that I read the books when they came out in the three books and even happier that I got the book in the hardcover edition collecting all three.
Quoth PAD:
“But the licensing agreement ran out, so they were unable to go back to press on the third because they no longer have the rights to the property.”
I believe it’s a similar situation with Virgin losing the license which accounts for the last half dozen or so of their Doctor Who novels being hard to find.
It’s interesting – well, vaguely so, to me anyway – to see the difference in terms of units sold within a format that make something viable, successful, or wildly successful.
Take PAD’s hypothetical(ish?) 50,000 for a book, factor in the 25-30,000 sales for a comic book, (peaking to 100,000 for top selling X-Men) and look at the millions of bums on seats needed to make a movie a smash hit, or a TV show top of the ratings. Then work out DVD sales and internet downloads, legitimate and otherwise, plus interactive PC and/or console games…
Entertainment is a large and curious business to work in!
Cheers.
Quoth PAD:
“But the licensing agreement ran out, so they were unable to go back to press on the third because they no longer have the rights to the property.”
I believe it’s a similar situation with Virgin losing the license which accounts for the last half dozen or so of their Doctor Who novels being hard to find.
It’s interesting – well, vaguely so, to me anyway – to see the difference in terms of units sold within a format that make something viable, successful, or wildly successful.
Take PAD’s hypothetical(ish?) 50,000 for a book, factor in the 25-30,000 sales for a comic book, (peaking to 100,000 for top selling X-Men) and look at the millions of bums on seats needed to make a movie a smash hit, or a TV show top of the ratings. Then work out DVD sales and internet downloads, legitimate and otherwise, plus interactive PC and/or console games…
Entertainment is a large and curious business to work in!
Cheers.
That’s putting it politely! 😀
Weirdly, the problem for me was the inverse – I found ‘Out of the Darkness’ cheap at a second-hand bookstore, and then had to wait patiently for the first two novels to show up on eBay at a reasonable price…
Weirdly, the problem for me was the inverse – I found ‘Out of the Darkness’ cheap at a second-hand bookstore, and then had to wait patiently for the first two novels to show up on eBay at a reasonable price…
I’m familiar with this, but it’s still not intuitive to me. If the first book sells 30,000 copies and so the second book has only 30,000 printed, it’s not clear to me why the sell-through would remain at 50-60%. It’s not as if book buyers go in and say, “Hey! They had 20 copies at this store last time and now there are only 10 of the second volume. Guess I won’t buy this….”
Does it have anything to do with having enough copies to face out and/or put on endcaps? But isn’t endcap space bought and paid for by publishers anyway?
What a strange business….
(I’m glad I have the hardcover omnibus too!)
I would’ve just blamed it all on that Mr. Morden and his “associates” in the publishing industry.
That’s one of the reasons that I’m glad not to be working for a bookstore. That and the fact that a lot of chain bookstores hire people who can’t find their ášš with both hands, a GPS tracker and a flashlight.
If I ever manage to get the money to do it, I intend to open a bookstore here in Nashville that caters to fen. SF, fantasy, mystery and horror and stuff related to those genres. Nothing else. Nothing used; they can go to Great Escape for that.
And if I hit the lottery for some obscene amount of money, I’ll have a three story Gothic castle built to put it in. Something large and evil-looking that weirds out the neighbors.
My God, it’ll be beautiful…
Miles
Miles
That’s one of the reasons that I’m glad not to be working for a bookstore. That and the fact that a lot of chain bookstores hire people who can’t find their ášš with both hands, a GPS tracker and a flashlight.
If I ever manage to get the money to do it, I intend to open a bookstore here in Nashville that caters to fen. SF, fantasy, mystery and horror and stuff related to those genres. Nothing else. Nothing used; they can go to Great Escape for that.
And if I hit the lottery for some obscene amount of money, I’ll have a three story Gothic castle built to put it in. Something large and evil-looking that weirds out the neighbors.
My God, it’ll be beautiful…
Miles
Miles
I have the Sci-Fi Book Club collection where they put all three books into one hardback.
~8?)`
You may all bask in my glow now.
I’m familiar with this, but it’s still not intuitive to me. If the first book sells 30,000 copies and so the second book has only 30,000 printed, it’s not clear to me why the sell-through would remain at 50-60%
Reduced exposure on the bookshelves. Reduced priority by the booksellers. There’s quick turnover by many bookstores because of limited shelf space.
Let’s say the first book in the Centauri trilogy goes out and it has five copies in a Borders and is displayed Cover out. That attracts attention. And let’s say it sells three copies. That’s sixty percent sell through. Not bad. Next time they may get only two copies and thus display it spine out. New customers don’t notice it, and if the people who bought the previous book don’t happen to come by during the period that it’s out (in some stores as little as a week or two) the book’s yanked off the shelves, the cover is stripped and sent back for credit, and next book the store gets one copy, if that.
You would be amazed what lack of publicity combined with the net sales death spiral can accomplish. The recent announcement of the Apropos IDW comic prompted people to come up to me at conventions and ask if I’m ever going to write any novel sequels to the first one, unaware that Pocket Books produced two follow-ups years ago. The second book received little-to-no PR, and the third book, Pocket never even sent out review copies. In the meanwhile the first book keeps selling out (it’s up to its sixth printing) but stores almost never carry the second and third novels because they didn’t sell enough. The bookbuyers don’t make the mental leap of, “Gee, there’s still interest in the first book; we should really stock the sequels.” Instead they just look at the net sales of the sequels and figure it’s not worth their time.
PAD
I’m familiar with this, but it’s still not intuitive to me. If the first book sells 30,000 copies and so the second book has only 30,000 printed, it’s not clear to me why the sell-through would remain at 50-60%
Reduced exposure on the bookshelves. Reduced priority by the booksellers. There’s quick turnover by many bookstores because of limited shelf space.
Let’s say the first book in the Centauri trilogy goes out and it has five copies in a Borders and is displayed Cover out. That attracts attention. And let’s say it sells three copies. That’s sixty percent sell through. Not bad. Next time they may get only two copies and thus display it spine out. New customers don’t notice it, and if the people who bought the previous book don’t happen to come by during the period that it’s out (in some stores as little as a week or two) the book’s yanked off the shelves, the cover is stripped and sent back for credit, and next book the store gets one copy, if that.
You would be amazed what lack of publicity combined with the net sales death spiral can accomplish. The recent announcement of the Apropos IDW comic prompted people to come up to me at conventions and ask if I’m ever going to write any novel sequels to the first one, unaware that Pocket Books produced two follow-ups years ago. The second book received little-to-no PR, and the third book, Pocket never even sent out review copies. In the meanwhile the first book keeps selling out (it’s up to its sixth printing) but stores almost never carry the second and third novels because they didn’t sell enough. The bookbuyers don’t make the mental leap of, “Gee, there’s still interest in the first book; we should really stock the sequels.” Instead they just look at the net sales of the sequels and figure it’s not worth their time.
PAD
I’m just glad I (too) have the omnibus edition. Those were fantastic books, PAD. (As so many of yours are.) This just goes to show that, as readers of books, we are in a relatively exclusive club that needs our support. If there’s an author you like, support them. The masses are the patrons now.
Eric
I’m just glad I (too) have the omnibus edition. Those were fantastic books, PAD. (As so many of yours are.) This just goes to show that, as readers of books, we are in a relatively exclusive club that needs our support. If there’s an author you like, support them. The masses are the patrons now.
Eric
This to me is one of the biggest benefits of Amazon. If I find a book in a store I like, one of the first things I do is see what else is available in the same series and add to wish list (even if not available right then). As new novels may be released, they pop up in recommendations so I can take advantage of a sometimes quick availability window.
A good example of this is Trek books. The space for them in stores seems to be steadily eroding and I have seen some of the non-mainstream (Titan for example) titles not appear at all in the local B+N…
I suppose it’s way too late to suggest some more B5 books?
I suppose it’s way too late to suggest some more B5 books?
I bought the first two, then had a hëll of a time finding the last one. I was all ready to buy it for a ton of money on Amazon or eBay, till I was visiting Houston for my fathers brain tumor surgery, and found a copy in a Barnes and Noble. The one bright spot of that trip.
There is a similar problem with Jean Cavelos’ “Passing of the Technomages” trilogy – only the problem is with the second book. You can find books one and three available almost anywhere – but book two is almost impossible to find.
I was able to purchase my copy straight from the author – but most people aren’t that lucky.
There is a similar problem with Jean Cavelos’ “Passing of the Technomages” trilogy – only the problem is with the second book. You can find books one and three available almost anywhere – but book two is almost impossible to find.
I was able to purchase my copy straight from the author – but most people aren’t that lucky.
Sadly, one also has to face the fact that Of the 100% of people who buy book one, *not* 100% of them are going to like it, and want to go get #2. It’s not entirely fair to blame the publishers or the retailers for not supplying an equal number of #2s as #1s… because even the best book in the world isn’t going to have 100% of the people who read it like it.
Sadly, one also has to face the fact that Of the 100% of people who buy book one, *not* 100% of them are going to like it, and want to go get #2. It’s not entirely fair to blame the publishers or the retailers for not supplying an equal number of #2s as #1s… because even the best book in the world isn’t going to have 100% of the people who read it like it.
Sadly, one also has to face the fact that Of the 100% of people who buy book one, *not* 100% of them are going to like it, and want to go get #2. It’s not entirely fair to blame the publishers or the retailers for not supplying an equal number of #2s as #1s… because even the best book in the world isn’t going to have 100% of the people who read it like it.
Sadly, one also has to face the fact that Of the 100% of people who buy book one, *not* 100% of them are going to like it, and want to go get #2. It’s not entirely fair to blame the publishers or the retailers for not supplying an equal number of #2s as #1s… because even the best book in the world isn’t going to have 100% of the people who read it like it.
This is common in the comic book business, too. Many series lose 20% or more of their sales from the first issue to the second. First issues used to be collectors items. Some series in the 90s reportedly approached a million copies for a first issue, making them so common that they are pretty much not worth a buck.
“Some series in the 90s reportedly approached a million copies for a first issue, making them so common that they are pretty much not worth a buck.”
This is true, In my local comic shop Rock Bottom comics in Fayetteville AR, there is a long comic box that I saw in the storage area packed full of the various cover versions of X-men 1. Had to be at least 400 coies there.
Wow. That’s so odd.
I work for Home Health and Hospice, and often I do respite calls, where there isn’t much to do except make certain that the clients’ air lines are untangled, they’re comfortable, etc.
For a seven-hour call, that means that there won’t necessarily be anything to do for long stretches, so I bring books.
Yesterday, I just finished re-reading book 3 of Legions of Fire. The other two I re-read the previous week.
Too bad that PAD doesn’t have a stash of them to sell on eBay.
Wow. That’s so odd.
I work for Home Health and Hospice, and often I do respite calls, where there isn’t much to do except make certain that the clients’ air lines are untangled, they’re comfortable, etc.
For a seven-hour call, that means that there won’t necessarily be anything to do for long stretches, so I bring books.
Yesterday, I just finished re-reading book 3 of Legions of Fire. The other two I re-read the previous week.
Too bad that PAD doesn’t have a stash of them to sell on eBay.
A similar thing happened with the last several “Doctor Who: New Adventures” books – the line was coming to an end, so the last two or three books never went back to press for a second printing, so they’re almost impossible to find for anything other than truly ridiculous amounts.
This reminds me of another thing: every New Frontier book is available (legally) as an ebook (say, from Mobipocket.com), *except* “Martyr” (book 5). What’s with that?
This reminds me of another thing: every New Frontier book is available (legally) as an ebook (say, from Mobipocket.com), *except* “Martyr” (book 5). What’s with that?
Sorry, what’s *up* with that. 🙂
Sorry to bring this up here, but it appears the “Shat slinging” thread is no longer available for commenting in:
Shatner ready to take ‘Trek’ feud to TV
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27685219/
Let it go, Bill. Let it go.
Sorry to bring this up here, but it appears the “Shat slinging” thread is no longer available for commenting in:
Shatner ready to take ‘Trek’ feud to TV
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27685219/
Let it go, Bill. Let it go.
This reminds me of another thing: every New Frontier book is available (legally) as an ebook (say, from Mobipocket.com), *except* “Martyr” (book 5). What’s with that?
I was looking at Amazon.com, and oddly enough, this is the only one of the early NF novels that Amazon.com still has in stock. 🙂
But Amazon doesn’t have it available as an ebook for their Kindle either right now, along with a couple of the other early NF books. I’ve clicked the “Request this for Kindle” link, so hopefully they’ll be able to provide it at some point. 🙂
The bookbuyers don’t make the mental leap of, “Gee, there’s still interest in the first book; we should really stock the sequels.” Instead they just look at the net sales of the sequels and figure it’s not worth their time.
Is that fair? I have a hard time believing that people interested in making money and faced with a contracting market aren’t looking carefully at things like this. I’m more inclined to believe they don’t have the information at hand to make the connection between the book selling well and the others that might move too.
The bookbuyers don’t make the mental leap of, “Gee, there’s still interest in the first book; we should really stock the sequels.” Instead they just look at the net sales of the sequels and figure it’s not worth their time.
Is that fair? I have a hard time believing that people interested in making money and faced with a contracting market aren’t looking carefully at things like this. I’m more inclined to believe they don’t have the information at hand to make the connection between the book selling well and the others that might move too.
I can understand a drop off between book one and book two… but a similar drop off between books two and three? Wierd.
Incidentally, my wife used to work as a bookseller at Waterstones, and she always bagged the SF section as one of her patches.
At that time – late 80’s, early 90’s – it was really hard to persuade “da manajment” to give shelf space to any SF book that wasn’t a film or TV tie in, because that was the safe bet of what would sell…
Cheers.
I can understand a drop off between book one and book two… but a similar drop off between books two and three? Wierd.
Incidentally, my wife used to work as a bookseller at Waterstones, and she always bagged the SF section as one of her patches.
At that time – late 80’s, early 90’s – it was really hard to persuade “da manajment” to give shelf space to any SF book that wasn’t a film or TV tie in, because that was the safe bet of what would sell…
Cheers.
Sometimes interest just wanes as a series progresses. About 10 years ago I bought the first novel of a new series and thought it was awesome. I couldn’t wait for the next one to come out.
By the time I got to the third one, I felt like he was just padding things out. Some stuff moved forward, but not as much as I wanted. It wasn’t that the writing was worse than the first two books, just that I was getting more cliffhangers when I wanted real story progress.
Then I got the forth book and I didn’t even get halfway through it. It felt exactly like the other books and I had no faith in it actually resolving anything.
The same thing happens even when a series doesn’t fall into that trap. Sometimes people read a series for awhile and just get tired of that writer. Sometimes something else catches their eye and they decide to spend their money on the new thing instead. Not always, sometimes and audience grows instead of shrinks, but I can see why shrinking is the trend.
Sometimes interest just wanes as a series progresses. About 10 years ago I bought the first novel of a new series and thought it was awesome. I couldn’t wait for the next one to come out.
By the time I got to the third one, I felt like he was just padding things out. Some stuff moved forward, but not as much as I wanted. It wasn’t that the writing was worse than the first two books, just that I was getting more cliffhangers when I wanted real story progress.
Then I got the forth book and I didn’t even get halfway through it. It felt exactly like the other books and I had no faith in it actually resolving anything.
The same thing happens even when a series doesn’t fall into that trap. Sometimes people read a series for awhile and just get tired of that writer. Sometimes something else catches their eye and they decide to spend their money on the new thing instead. Not always, sometimes and audience grows instead of shrinks, but I can see why shrinking is the trend.
…and I’m so glad I bought them when they came out, and have added them to my classroom library for those who want to give an “old show” a try.
Wow. I didn’t know it was worth that much. I will have to go dig it out.
It’s been a while since I read it, but I remember it was good. However, I liked the other B5 novels that dealt with the technomages even better (nothing against PAD — I just liked learning more about the origin of the technomages and specifically of Galen (if I remember my names correctly!)).
I think figuring out how publishers do things is even more complicated than nuclear physics and less sane than a national election.
Iowa Jim
Wow. I didn’t know it was worth that much. I will have to go dig it out.
It’s been a while since I read it, but I remember it was good. However, I liked the other B5 novels that dealt with the technomages even better (nothing against PAD — I just liked learning more about the origin of the technomages and specifically of Galen (if I remember my names correctly!)).
I think figuring out how publishers do things is even more complicated than nuclear physics and less sane than a national election.
Iowa Jim
Posted by Jason M. Bryant at November 13, 2008 07:16 PM
“Sometimes interest just wanes as a series progresses.”
I follow what you’re saying Jason – I’ve had the same experience with a few series – but this was a trilogy.
Buy book one, decide you don’t like it, exit here, OK fine. But buy books one and two then decide you’re not going to bother with three?
I can see that happening in some cases, I am surprised that it adds up to a similar percentage drop in sales as between one and two…
Remembering that PAD worked in sales before he turned to the dark side, I’m not arguing the numbers, I’m just slightly surprised by ’em.
Cheers
Posted by Jason M. Bryant at November 13, 2008 07:16 PM
“Sometimes interest just wanes as a series progresses.”
I follow what you’re saying Jason – I’ve had the same experience with a few series – but this was a trilogy.
Buy book one, decide you don’t like it, exit here, OK fine. But buy books one and two then decide you’re not going to bother with three?
I can see that happening in some cases, I am surprised that it adds up to a similar percentage drop in sales as between one and two…
Remembering that PAD worked in sales before he turned to the dark side, I’m not arguing the numbers, I’m just slightly surprised by ’em.
Cheers
Jim, I thought all three of the B5 trilogies were quite good. I liked the Psi-Corps trilogy (though the first two books much better than the third), PAD’s Centauri trilogy, and the technomage trilogy — I honestly don’t know which of the three trilogies I’d say is my favorite.
TWL
Jim, I thought all three of the B5 trilogies were quite good. I liked the Psi-Corps trilogy (though the first two books much better than the third), PAD’s Centauri trilogy, and the technomage trilogy — I honestly don’t know which of the three trilogies I’d say is my favorite.
TWL
Sounds like everyone’s got their own lost third volume. For me it’s the final volume of the original run of George RR Martin’s Wild Cards books.
Amazon’s great so long as the book’s still available from the publisher, but eventually that stops. Eventually ebooks will fill the gap, but too often right now publishers seem to see them as either a special deal or a cash cow.