Purely a guess, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we actually have a Bush landslide.
If and when that happens, Bush should be sure to send bin Laden a nice fruit basket. Because for the first nine months, Bush’s presidency was a joke. Then the towers fell, and he was no less a joke than before, but people became afraid to laugh.
It is amazing that Bush can make 9/11 the centerpiece of his campaign without the vast majority of Americans saying, “Hey, wait…that happened on your watch, didn’t it? And the guy who did it is still out there, but we’re supposed to feel safer with you in charge? What’s up with THAT?” It’s like the people of South Park strangely feeling safer when Officer Barbrady is running things. And yet polls show they do. Of course, a poll also showed that 75% of Bush’s supporters believe Saddam had WMDs and 72% think Saddam was connected with 9/11. So you just get the feeling a lot of people aren’t paying attention.
In any event, I think the only reason that people are undecided is because they know in their hearts that Bush is lame, but they haven’t brought themselves to embrace Kerry. So my guess is that the undecideds will just stay home, and that should pretty much be the ball game.
Still, it’ll be interesting to see what the gargantuan scandals will be that rock the Bush administration in the next four years, and by what point the American people will get fed up being fed the language of fear. In the meantime, so much for stem cell research, and God only knows what the Supreme Court will be like four years from now.
PAD
(Peter, would you like to bet cash on that? I have $10 for the CBLDF that says Kerry wins decisively. –GH)
(Fine by me, Glenn. Me, I’m guessing it’s never too soon to start printing up those “Don’t blame me, I voted for Kerry” bumper stickers we should be needing in the next few years.–PAD)
• 
While I agree, oh I agree, I also feel obligated to point out that before Bush’s August 2001 ban on research on stem cells created from that point, there was no federal funding for stem cell research – this is something that the Bush administration did. Just, with serious strings attached, and instead of some 60+ cell lines, something more like 10. If you’re looking on a good day.
Beyond that, all I can really add is hoping you’re being overly pessimistic while simultaneously thinking you’re probably right.
-Kelly
I think you’re both wrong. I think those people who stood in line for five hours to vote in Florida are indivative of the success in registering and getting out the vote by the Democrats. I think Kerry will take the popular vote and the electoral vote, thus becoming president without lawsuits.
Go here for the very latest ifo based on the very latest polls: http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Ah, we’re screwed any way.
If Kerry wins, he’s been stuck with such a mess, that it’ll take a decade or more to fix. ANNNND…he’ll be so hamstrung that anything more than surface changes will be impossible. And he’ll get blamed for the mess that Bush created.
Hey, don’t give up hope… never underestimate the power of righteous indignation… and people who screen their calls.
I won’t predict who will win, but I’m reasonably confident that it won’t be a landslide; certainly not a Bush landslide.
In addition to the site that Karen referenced, try: http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html
only one phrase can sum up how I feel about the election at this point.
“Im scared sarge. We’re all scared son.”
I obviously hope PAD is correct, but I have never seen an election like this.
Ever.
Not just because of the closeness of it, but because there is so much at stake.
Stuff that has hardly been talked about.
George Will said it the other day: It’s amazing that NEITHER side has talked much about the Supreme Court. We’ll talk about “whether Bush was bugged” during the first debate or how silly Kerry looked in hunting camouflage, but the fact that we have gone the longest period of time in decades without a new Supreme Court appointment, combined with the ages of the current Justices, well you think that would have entered the discussion, at least a few times in the debates.
Instead it has been the Economy, Iraq, and the Story of the Day, be that flu vaccines, stem cells, etc.
Bloody amazing.
It is amazing that Bush can make 9/11 the centerpiece of his campaign without the vast majority of Americans saying, “Hey, wait…that happened on your watch, didn’t it? And the guy who did it is still out there, but we’re supposed to feel safer with you in charge?
So in ’93 when two CIA agents are killed in virgina by terrorists, when ’93 thw WTS is bombed and six people died and 1000 injured, when in ’95 a US Military complex in Saudi Arabia is blown up killing seven service men and women, when in ’96 another military compound is blown up in Saudi Arabia killing 19 and injuring over 500, when the two US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania are attacked killing 224 people, and when on October 2000 the US Cole was attacked killing 17 sailors, we as Americans should have felt safe with Clinton in charge? The attack on the Cole is a perfect example. An attack on a US war ship is an act of war and the Clinton Administration sent the FBI to investigate! You felt safer in the 90s? You know what? If they would have done something back then September the 1lth probably would NEVER HAVE HAPPEND!
Because for the first nine months, Bush’s presidency was a joke.
That is such bull that it isn’t even funny!
First, a look at Bush’s first 100 days(not exactly gays in the military or a tax increase -like Clinton’s first 100 days, but you know..):
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/shields&gigot/april01/sg_4-27.html
Bush’s first nine months:
January 2001:
-President Bush proclaims a National Day of Prayer
-Executive order by President Bush establishes the White House Office of Faith-Based and Community Initiatives.
February 2001
-President Bush proclaims National Consumer Protection Week
-President Bush releases agenda for tax relief
-President Bush and President Vicente Fox of Mexico hold joint press conference
-President Bush speaks at dedication of Oklahoma City National Memorial
-President Bush and Prime Minister Blair hold joint press conference
-President Bush address’ Joint Session of Congress
March 2001
-President Bush speaks at christening ceremony for the USS Ronald Reagan
-President Bush speaks at Chicago Mercantile Exchange
-President Bush and meets with President Kim Dae-Jung of South Korea
-President Bush meets with National Energy Policy Development Group
-President and Mrs. Bush Speak to women business leaders
-President Bush welcomes Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of Israel
-President Bush speaks at La Sociedad Cubana
-President Bush welcomes Catholic Leaders to White House
-President Bush proclaims Education and Sharing Day, USA
-President Bush speaks to Greek Community Leaders
-President Bush speaks to high tech leaders
-President Bush speaks to African American leaders
-President Bush proclaims National Child Abuse Prevention Month.
-President Bush speaks to members of the Baseball Hall of Fame
-President Bush signs resolution repealing ergonomics regulation that repeals burdensome and broad regulation dealing with ergonomics.
April 2001
-A Chinese fighter jet downs a US spy plan causing an international incident. China held the crew for 11 days, until the Bush Administration negotiated their release without admitting responsibility.
-President Bush proclaims National Former Prisoner of War Recognition Day.
-President Bush congratulates Winners of Horatio Alger Award
-President Bush proclaims Jewish Heritage Week
-President Bush proclaims National Crime Victims’ Rights Week.
-U.S. forces participate in apprehension of indicted war criminal
-The Mississippi River experienced severe flooding of historic significance – the river rose to its highest level since 1965 affecting residents in 4 states and causing billions in damages.
President Bush declares several Mississippi counties disaster areas
-President Bush speaks at Holocaust Museum
-President’s speaks at the Summit of the Americas – Quebec City, Canada
-President Bush recognizes national teachers of the year
-President Bush proclaims National Day of Prayer
May 2001
-President Bush proclaims Law Day
-President Bush announces formation of Social Security Commission
-President Bush speaks at National Day of Prayer reception
-President Bush proclaims Small Business Week
-President Bush welcomes Amir of Bahrain to the White House
-President Bush declares disaster exists in Illinois
-President Bush speaks with math champs
-President Bush speaks at 20th annual Peace Officers Memorial Service
-President Bush declares disaster exists in Minnesota, Maine and Nebraska
-President Bush signs Medal of Valor Bill
-President Bush speaks to national leadership of the Hispanic faith-based organizations
-President Bush meets with the Dalai Lama
-President Bush speaks at U.S. Naval Academy Commencement
-President Bush proclaims Prayer for Peace
-President Bush delivers Memorial Day address at Arlington National Cemetery
-President Bush announces National Parks Legacy Project.
-President Bush Signs World War II Memorial Bill.
-President Bush sign Executive Order: Actions Concerning Regulations that Significantly Affect Energy Supply, Distribution, or Use.
June 2001
-President declares disaster exists in West Virginia
-President Bush proclaims National Child’s Day
-President Bush Signs wildfire bill into law
-June 4, 2001 President Bush speaks at Royal Palm Visitors Center in Everglades National Park
-President Bush speaks to Habitat for Humanity Supporters
-President Bush speaks at Dedication of National D-Day Memorial
-President Bush signs tax cut bill reducing Federal Income Tax Rates and sends a refund to millions of Americans
-President Bush speaks at the Fourth National Summit on Fatherhood
-President Bush speaks at tax reduction celebration event in Iowa
-President Bush holds press conference with President Jose Maria Aznar
-President Bush speaks at the opening of NATO meeting in Brussels
-President Bush holds press conference with President of the Republic of Poland, Aleksander Kwasniewski – Warsaw, Poland
U.S. and Poland sign Open Skies Agreement
-President Bush holds press conference with Russian Federation President Putin
-President Bush speaks at Summit on the 21st Century Work Force
-President Bush declares disaster exists in Mississippi
-President Bush declares disaster exists in Pennsylvania
-U.S. and Poland sign comprehensive trade package
-President discusses faith-based initiative at Conference of Mayors
-President Bush and Prime Minister Sharon meet in Oval Office
-President Bush meets with President of South Africa
-President Bush meets with Prime Minister Koizumi of Japan – Camp David, Maryland
July 2001
-President Bush visits Jefferson Memorial
-President orders federal aid for Montana storm recovery
-President Bush speaks to participants of America’s Promise
-President speaks to specialty doctors and patients on Patients’ Bill of Rights
-President Bush announces Medicare initiative
-President participates in roundtable interview with foreign press
-President Bush and President Chirac of France speak to the press – Genoa, Italy
-President Bush and President Putin hold press conference – Genoa, Italy
-President Bush meets with the Pope John Paul II – Rome, Italy
-President Bush and Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi hold press conference – Rome, Italy
-President Bush speaks to troops in Kosovo
-President Bush recognizes 11th anniversary of Americans with Disabilities Act
August 2001
-President Bush discusses first six months in office
-President Bush signs Agriculture Supplemental Bill
-President Bush speaks about character development at YMCA Picnic
-Statement by the President about faith-based and community initiatives
-President Bush signs Export Controls Executive Order
-President to Bush visits workers at Harley Davidson factory
-President Bush speaks with students at Crawford Elementary
-President Bush announces Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff
-President Bush gives tour of Crawford Ranch
-President Bush speaks at Little League World Series
-President Bush discusses defense priorities at American Legion
-President and Mrs. Bush unveil new White House Web Site
September 2001
-President Discusses economy at Teamsters barbecue in Detroit, Michigan
-President Bush meets with President Fox of Mexico
-President Bush proclaims National Birmingham Pledge Week
-President Bus proclaims National POW/MIA Recognition Day.
Terrorist attack of September 11, 2001 over 3000 innocent Americans are killed.
Anthrax laced letters cause several deaths, closing post offices and delaying the delivery of mail across the US.
-President proclaims National Day of Prayer and Remembrance
-President Bush salutes heroes in New York at the site of the World Trade Center disaster
-President Bush launches online American relief and response effort
-President Bush signs Authorization for Use of Military Force Bill
-President Bush authorizes additional disaster funding for New York
-President Bush addresses a Joint Session of Congress and the American People after the attack on September 11, 2001- The Bush Doctrine on Terror
President Bush released $5.1 billion dollars to assist in the humanitarian, recovery, and security related to 9/11
-President Bush signs Airline Transportation Bill to assure the safety and stability of the nation’s commercial airlines
-President Bush signs executive order freezing the assets of terrorist organizations
-President Bush proclaims Family Day
-President orders federal disaster aid for Florida
-President Bush meets with the King of Jordan
You want to bìŧçh about it, well there it is.
“In the meantime, so much for stem cell research…”
You want to talk about being lame? It is statements like that that are lame. It shows a complete lack of understanding of the issue, in my opinion.
God only knows what the Supreme Court will be like four years from now.
Who knows? Maybe we’ll get lucky and they’ll overturn Roe v Wade.
I think there’s a good chance Bush will win (though in the past 48 hours I’ve suddenly become more hopeful for Kerry’s prospects).
But, a Bush landslide? Come now. I really really REALLY doubt that’ll happen. It’ll definitely be a horse race photo finish and whatever other metaphors I can make up.
“Who knows? Maybe we’ll get lucky and they’ll overturn Roe v Wade.”
Who knows? Maybe we’ll get lucky and he can
1) Ban teaching evolution in schools
2) Invade Syria, Iran, Lebannon and Jordan
3) Use some “bunker buster” nuclear weapons somewhere!
4) Repeal that nasty first amendment. It shouldn’t be used to criticise our President in a TIME OF WAR.
5) Make prayer in schools as compulsory as metal detectors. (It’s cheaper than supplying actual funds for schools or kids.)
6) Create more McJobs, (easier to do if we don’t increase the minimum wage).
7) Make it so that only god-fearing patriotic unquestioning (white) Americans can vote. Or better yet, install himself as President-for-Life.
================================================
Take your woman-hating fear mongering neo-fascism back to the dark ages, please.
Unfortunately Bush will win, I am pretty sure of that. He is more appealing to voters who want a “strong” America and he is more appealing to voters who have strong conservative Christian values. In short, he is better at appealing to the masses.
Yesterday I watched a news programme about the swing states that are so important. A reporter was stopping people and asking them to point out on a world map where Afghanistan, Iraq and Britain are. The results were embarassing to say the least.
“Bush’s first nine months:…”
(laundry list of Bush’s useless photo ops snipped for brevity)
…were actually spent ON VACATION about 40% of the time.
Sorry, but making speaches to all his fundamentalist right-wing buddies just doesn’t really count as actual work. That’s more like a lot of SCHMOOZING and EVASION of actual governing.
“The attack on the Cole is a perfect example. An attack on a US war ship is an act of war and the Clinton Administration sent the FBI to investigate! You felt safer in the 90s?”
Yeah, I did. Because that incident didn’t happen on American soil. And it’s truly WISHFUL THINKING that 9/11 would have been prevented if America had taken a more proactive stance towards this situation. More likely, we’d have ended up with the mess we currently have now in Iraq much sooner.
Well, for once I have to wish you were correct even while, predictably, thinking that you aren’t. I’m going with Kerry 51%, Bush 49%, Nader getting less than 1%. Al Franken may be out of a job.
Not to beat this dead horse any further but if one is asked “DIDIraq have weapons of mass destruction?” isn’t the only correct answer “Yes.”? Because it DID, at one time, but (it would seem) got rid of them prior to the invasion? Now if the question is “Did Iraq have WMD when the USA invaded, you would have a much better leg to stand on vis a vis getting sniffy at people who still insist that that they did (though, like the Loch Ness Monster, you will never ever be able to disprove their existance, while it will be forvever possible that proof of existance is just about to happen.)
Anyway, I’m sticking with Kerry to win, although the bitterness and gloom of many of his supporters would tend to indicate otherwise.
PAD’s prediction of scandals in the next 4 years sounds terrifyingly like what Republicans said in 1996…and hey, THAT worked out.
I don’t know about a landslide. My sister-in-law has always been a firm Republican but this election she is voting for Kerry. Which surprised the heck out of me. So if she can vote for Kerry, I have hopes that other Americans will come to their senses also.
As per the ’93 WTC bombing, the last I heard was that the individuals responsible for the act were apprehended during Clinton’s years. The Cole attack was handled swiftly as well.
As for the list of accomplishments, hmm, I don’t see any REAL SIGNIFICANCE of critical laws being signed save the tax cut and the repeal on ergonomics (hmm, so in Bush’s world work conditions may not be safer).
If Roe v. Wade is overturned, I think it would be a sad day. Even if you’re against abortion, its still up to a woman to decide whether they want children or not. Its a very gray area and not something that can be put into a black or white situation.
I just think that years from now we’ll find out that our tax cuts were the ebbs of social Security, that we spent the money saved for our retirement and the only thing Dunbya can do is shrug. Granted, he’ll still be making money off his lumber business or getting funds from the Carlisle Group.
Oh, and as for the election, I think Kerry will get both the Popular and the Electoral, but not by much. Well, at least he’ll get the Electoral, and we all know that’s what you need to become President. Heck, probably 95% of Bush supporters probably foreget that’s how Dubya got elected.
One thing we can all agree on–many pollsters will have some ‘splaining to do. Some science…astrology would probably give more accurate results. Wanna bet that after the fact they will release their “last second results” that miraculously show a shift toward the eventual winner?
Second no-brainer prediction–after winning by, at most, 3 or 4 percentage points (and quite likely far less) the winner will claim a mandate and pundits will treat the loser as though they were tarred, feathered and ridden out of town on a rail. Sort of like how the Superbowl loser becomes synonymous with the word “loser” when, after all, they beat every team but one.
Just got back from voting. I showed up at 6:50am est at a small voting center in northeastern PA. There was already a line and when I walked out afterwards, the line was out the door and down the block…. time 7:10am. I hope that this bodes well for turn-out and participation.
Don’t forget to thank the volunteers at the voting centers for their time. 🙂
Fred
I’m predicting a 269-269 electoral vote tie.
Which will mean the New US House picks the President, and they will pick Bush.
And the New US Senate will pick the VP, and they will pick Edwards.
And we’ll have the first split-executive since Adams-Jefferson.
“One thing we can all agree on–many pollsters will have some ‘splaining to do. Some science…astrology would probably give more accurate results.”
Yep, on this I would agree. Although to be honest, I consider most advance poll-taking about as accurate as predicting the weather.
Hmmm, it’s raining in Michigan this morning…should be a good turnout at the polls today. 🙂
KET
Everyone make sure you get out and vote! I’m not even american, yet i understand how important this is to everyone. VOTE VOTE VOTE!
Thank you!
Funzo!
Bush didn’t get a landslide four years ago when not as many people cared to vote; he’s certainly not getting one now. If he wins, my guess is it’ll be in the same manner as in 2000 (i.e., not really winning as much as being appointed).
“I’m predicting a 269-269 electoral vote tie.
Which will mean the New US House picks the President, and they will pick Bush.
And the New US Senate will pick the VP, and they will pick Edwards.
And we’ll have the first split-executive since Adams-Jefferson.”
I’ve seen the future and your right about the vote, however we live in a world gone mad and for some reason the house picks Nader.
Take your woman-hating fear mongering neo-fascism back to the dark ages, please.
Wow, gotta love how when presented with facts some start resorting to name calling and lies, typical.
“eric!” said:
Take your woman-hating fear mongering neo-fascism back to the dark ages, please.
Wow, gotta love how when presented with facts some start resorting to name calling and lies, typical.
Yeah, and you do it so well.
John wrote:
2) Invade Syria, Iran, Lebannon and Jordan
Hey, what do you have against Jordan?
As per the ’93 WTC bombing, the last I heard was that the individuals responsible for the act were apprehended during Clinton’s years.
Within days, i believe.
Of course, they brilliantly went back to try to get back the deposit on their van…
Mike Weber:
“eric!” said:
Take your woman-hating fear mongering neo-fascism back to the dark ages, please.
Wow, gotta love how when presented with facts some start resorting to name calling and lies, typical.
Yeah, and you do it so well.
Twisting words, how original, not surprised though.
Ah, politics. I love the hate.
Or at least I’m going to have to learn to love the hate, because there’ll be a lot of it. No matter who wins, half the country will hate him.
And…God help me, but I have this terrible premonition…whoever gets elected will be assassinated before his term is out by some nut from the other side of the aisle.
If this shocks you, let me remind you that assassination is a typical and common political process in a banana republic. And what is America in these days of political manipulation and screaming but a banana republic?
“Wow, gotta love how when presented with facts some start resorting to name calling and lies, typical”
Name calling? I didn’t call him any names.
Lies?
Right…
Clearly you forget that most conservative republicans are opposed to Roe vs Wade, are fiercely pro-war, are pro the bomb, wouldn’t mind nuking all the Arabs, and try to force educators to accept “intelligent design” in a science class, and think it’s unpatriotic to question the president… etc.
If you don’t realise that’s what the pro-Bush crowd favour, you haven’t been online very long.
I’m just holding up a mirror so you can see those wonderful viewpoints in one spot, ugly and all as it is.
Just one thing I’ve never been able to figure out:
Bush never saw combat. Kerry shot another armed human being to death at a distance short enough to fit into the average bathroom.
So why is Bush seen as macho and Kerry seen as a wimp?
Ah, well. I’m still voting for Michael Badnarik.
even tho Im from Canada, I sure hope your wrong about who wins, Peter. Bush just freaks me out…
Some one mentioned assassination, but we were due for that with Bush in 2000. Every 20 years we shoot a president… or it sure seems to work out that way, haven’t all the shot presidents been elected in election years ending in 0….
Had an interesting news item about the U.S. elections here a few days ago. Something about polls becoming increasingly unreliable because more and more people are going from a traditional phone to mobile ones. Problem being, the polling firms don’t have the numbers of many of those mobiles and thus can’t reach that growing segment of the population.
One thing we can all agree on–many pollsters will have some ‘splaining to do.
You mean, like CBS/NYT saying Bush was ahead in the final poll, and Fox News saying Kerry was ahead in the final poll? 🙂
Between the possible change in eletoral voting here in Colorado, to the regular BS in Florida, to Republican challengers at the polls in Ohio… this is not over after the polls are closed and the ballots counted today.
Until it can adequately be explained how matter self created from nothing, why can’t intelligent design be presented in schools as one theory?
If you don’t realise that’s what the pro-Bush crowd favour, you haven’t been online very long.
….and clearly you’ve been on-line waaay to long. Repeat after me: “Just because it’s on the internet doesn’t make it true.”
as for stem cells, unfortunately:
“The stem cell lines available for federally-funded research in the US have characteristics which mean they may never be used for medical treatments in humans, a new study suggests.
Fred Gage at the Salk Institute in La Jolla, California and Ajit Varki at the University of California, San Diego, US, have shown that human embryonic stem cells (hESC) cultivated on a scaffolding of mouse
John,
“Clearly you for get that most conservative republicans are opposed to Roe vs. Wade,”
This is true, though younger people and soccer moms have made it less so. And it’s always a kick to see liberals/Democrats, who claim they want constructive debate and hate name-calling, being portrayed as unpatriotic, etc. have absolutely no problem painting anyone who doesn’t agree with the “right to choose” (choose what? a new dress? a doctor?) as being woman-haters. If it were as cut and dried as you suggest, candidates would have no problem calling themselves “pro-abortion” – the same as they would portay themselves as “pro-environment”, “Pro-unions”, etc. Even NARAL has changed its name to emphasize “choice” instead of “abortion”. Why would they do that, being such strong supporters of what they consider to be a fundamental right and all?
“are fiercely pro-war”
They are for this war. You may disagree, but many feel the cause is just.
“wouldn’t mind nuking all the Arabs”
Now this I find really offensive. Anyone in their right mind would “mind” nuking anyone. I have quite a few Arab friends, including one I love dearly. She’s one of the best people I’ve met. Any rational person realizes that most people want the same things – love, safety of their kids, etc.
“think it’s unpatriotic to question the President”
Again, you’re wrong. What we find unpatriotic is questioning him and his policies in a dishonorable manner.
Meryl Streep is against Bush because she feels he caters to and would continue to cater to evangelicals? That is a policy point and valid dissent.
Claiming that the war is “for oil”, that we went to Afghanistan not to respond to 9/11 but to build a pipeline, that Bush has a “secret plan” to bring back the draft to scare young people, that he has a “secret plan” to privatize Social security immediately after the election to scare seniors, that we had Bin Laden on ice for an October Surprise and/or we would find WMDs “just in time for the election” are all dishonorable arguments with little to no basis in fact.
“If you don’t realise that’s what the pro-Bush crowd favour,you haven’t been online very long”
Oh, yes. Because everything on the internet is true! Only calm, reasoned people use it!
You know what, John. There is this rectangular object in your wall with a handle or knob on it. It’s called a door. If you actually mange to go through that there is this thing we call “outside” or “the world”. If you can pull yourself away from the internet for a while, you might actually see that there are people of all races and creeds and they all have different views! And guess what, here’s the best part, you won’t be able to tell someone’s political views by what they look like or if they go to church or anything else! It’s caled diversity of opinion, and it’s a beautiful thing!
“I’m just holding up a mirror so you can see those wonderful viewpoints and all in one spot, ugly and all as it is”
Instead of holding up a mirror for others, why dont you combat your ignorance about others who hold a different viewpoint from your own and interacting with them. You can also combat your own ignorance by buying a used phonics textbook. Maybe then you’ll REALIZE how FAVOR is spelled.
We definitely need No Child Left Behind.
The problem with this election is that it’s been wholly propelled by controversy.
Oliver Wendell Holmes said. “Controversy equalizes fools and wise men…and the fools know it.”
And thus our election comes down to the flip of a coin.
And thus I continue to be very very nice to my friend who works at a jobs placement program in Canada.
I believe “favour” is how it’s spelled in the U.K., Canada, etc.
Im pretty sure Kerry will win. Both Republicans and Democrats agree that for an incumbent Bush’s numbers are pretty sad. Most undecided voters tend to vote for the new guy and lets not forget that Bush lost the popular vote and was elected by “activist judges” as President.
So since Bush lost the popular vote, he has lost republican votes, he does not have a lead in the polls, I think Kerry will win.
Peter, I understand that you are going by “gut feelings”, much like our president. But as we have seen, “gut feelings” can be wrong. Voter turnout in this election looks to be very high. That includes undecideds. Most people who are interested are not going to stay home.
Some one mentioned assassination, but we were due for that with Bush in 2000. Every 20 years we shoot a president… or it sure seems to work out that way, haven’t all the shot presidents been elected in election years ending in 0….
Actually, the old “curse” was the every president elected in a year ending in a 0 died in officer, whether by assassination like JFK or Lincoln or by natural causes like FDR or Warren Harding. That ended with Reagan, who survived both getting shot and colon cancer during his term of office.
It’s been interesting reading some blogs of people who are obviously Republican or Democrat. They’re prediciting the other side is going to win. I think it’s a mental defence mechanism – if you’re right, then you’re prepared for the letdown. If you’re wrong, then you can be happy that you were wrong.
I’m in Canada, but that doesn’t mean we’re not fascinated by all of this (btw, ‘favour’ is Canadian/UK spelling. We also spell words like ‘theatre’ re instead of er.) Most Canadian lean towards Kerry instead of Bush.
I don’t know, though. Inadvertently, Bush has been very good for Canada. Yes, there have been trade disputes, but the Canadian economy is thriving, we have budget surpluses that we’re using to pay down our deficit, we have a trade surplus with the States, and our dollar has surged about 10-15 cents against the US dollar since Bush became president.
And despite the slagging of our health care system, I’ll take it over what’s available in the US.
So while I think Kerry is a better candidate, can’t really complain about what Bush has done for our country…;)
PAD wrote: “Purely a guess, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we actually have a Bush landslide.”
If you lived in my neck of the woods, you’d find it miraculous that any Republican ever got elected to any office. Chicago has had a Democratic mayor for more than 70 years, and I swear it seems like even the cemeteries have campaign posters in them to remind the dead folks to vote Democratic.
Roger wrote: “Ah, we’re screwed any way. If Kerry wins, he’s been stuck with such a mess, that it’ll take a decade or more to fix. ANNNND… he’ll be so hamstrung that anything more than surface changes will be impossible. And he’ll get blamed for the mess that Bush created.”
Baloney. If Kerry wants the job as president, he’d better be prepared to take the wheat with the chaff. If he spends his term being a blamer rather than a problem-solver, he WILL fail, and ironically, he will have no one to “blame” but himself.
I voted this morning at 9:15 — I did my part for the process.
As for Jerome, who wonders “If it were as cut and dried as you suggest, candidates would have no problem calling themselves “pro-abortion” – the same as they would portay themselves as “pro-environment”, “Pro-unions”, etc. Even NARAL has changed its name to emphasize “choice” instead of “abortion”. Why would they do that, being such strong supporters of what they consider to be a fundamental right and all?”
Because it’s pro-CHOICE. The pro-choice view is that people who choose to have an abortion should have safe, legal medical access to have it done safely; and people who choose not to have an abortion can choose not to have one. It’s the pro-life view that forces its view on everyone — no one can have an abortion, regardless of their beliefs or choices.
I went to vote about 10:00 this morning, in my quiet little New Jersey town. No challengers, no lawyers, just two little old ladies eating bagels and cream cheese and a third trying to work on the crossword puzzle. No lines, no wait, athough I think the little old ladies were less than amused when I said I was voting strictly LOTTE: Lesser Of The Two Evils.
Seriously though, I think there are too many factors out there that haven’t been factored into this race, most notably young and first-time voters. In most places, they’re un-pollable because they can’t be reached by land line phones, so it should be interesting to see what happens if these people turn out in force.
Bladestar posted: “Some one mentioned assassination, but we were due for that with Bush in 2000. Every 20 years we shoot a president… or it sure seems to work out that way, haven’t all the shot presidents been elected in election years ending in 0….”
That’s not quite accurate. The deal was that every president elected in a year ending in -0 would *die in office* with William Henry Harrison being the precedent in 1840 (we had two Presidents elected prior to that–Thomas Jefferson in 1800 and James Monroe in 1820–who not only survived their full terms in office, but both managed to live for a number of years following leaving office; Jefferson died in 1826, more than 2 decades after leaving office, and Monroe died in 1831, a little more than 6 years after leaving office).
The full list runs
W H Harrison (elected 1840, died 1841 of pneumonia)
Abraham Lincoln (elected 1860, reelected 1864, died 1865 from assassination)
James Garfield (elected 1880, died 1881 from assassination)
William McKinley (reelected 1900, died 1901 from assassination; McKinley was first elected in 1896)
Warren Harding (elected 1920, died 1923 from unspecified illness, though some conspiracy theorists believe he may have been poisoned in connection to administration scandals)
Franklin D Roosevelt (reelected 1940, reelected 1944, died 1945 from cerebral hemorrhage; FDR was first elected in 1932 and reelected in 1936)
John F Kennedy (elected 1960, died 1963 from assassination)
Ronald Reagan (elected 1980, survived assassination attempt 1981, reelected 1984, left office in fair health, died just this year)
George W Bush (“elected” 2000, almost choked on a pretzel a couple of years ago)
Reagan is said to have “broken the curse”–and due to the rather unique manner that Bush assumed the Presidency, the “curse” might not have been in effect. 😉 In any event, only 4 Presidents were assassinated (with 1 additional who survived an attempt) while 3 died of “natural causes” under the “curse”. It should also be noted that Gerald Ford survived 2 attempted assassinations, though he was not elected to the office and his term began and ended between “curse” years (had he died from either attempt, the “curse” could not have explained his death–although he assumed the Presidency without benefit of being elected to the post).